2025-26 regular season · December 28, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flyers at Kraken, Dec 28, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Kraken beat the Flyers 4–1, but the replays lean toward the Flyers: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 42 points of win probability to the Kraken.
The biggest swing (P2, 16:12 left): Jordan Eberle scored on a snap shot from 18 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Kraken.
Final
 Philadelphia Flyers | 1 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Kraken | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 Kraken very lucky · −75 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flyers win 8, Kraken win 2.
- 1 PHI 6 SEA 1
- 2 PHI 4 SEA 0
- 3 PHI 4 SEA 1
- 4 PHI 5 SEA 2
- 5 PHI 2 SEA 0
- 6 PHI 3 SEA 1
- 7 PHI 3 SEA 2
- 8 PHI 2 SEA 1
- 9 PHI 2 SEA 3
- 10 PHI 2 SEA 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Flyers win 75% of them, Kraken 25%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flyers by 3+ | 41.6% |
| Flyers by 2 | 14.5% |
| Flyers by 1 | 19.1% |
| Kraken by 1 | 17.4% |
| Kraken by 2 | 4.4% |
| Kraken by 3+ | 3.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flyers | 50 | 1 | 3.32 | −2.32 |
 Kraken | 24 | 2 | 1.02 | +0.98 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:20 | Holding on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P1 7:38 | Holding on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 6:08 | Too many men on the ice on the Kraken (SEA): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
When it happened
Kraken’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:20 | Holding on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PHI | – |
| 2 | P1 10:23 | Matvei Michkov’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 51% chance | +9% SEA | – |
| 3 | P1 7:38 | Holding on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PHI | – |
| 4 | P1 6:42 | Noah Cates missed the net with a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 16% chance | +3% SEA | – |
| 5 | P1 4:42 | Travis Konecny missed the net with a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 20% chance | +4% SEA | – |
| 6 | P2 16:12 | Jordan Eberle scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 18% chance | +16% SEA | – |
| 7 | P2 6:08 | Too many men on the ice on the Kraken (SEA): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PHI | – |
| 8 | P3 14:11 | Chandler Stephenson scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 14% chance | +12% SEA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flyers 52% · Kraken 48%
- Final margin
- Kraken by 3
- Luck in goals
- 3.2 for the Kraken
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flyers by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Flyers 75% · Kraken 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 12, 2025-26
- Kraken at Ducks Dec 22, 2025 · SEA 3–1 · replay 24% for the winner
- Kraken at Kings Dec 23, 2025 · SEA 3–2 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rangers at Capitals Dec 23, 2025 · NYR 7–3 · replay 41% for the winner
- Devils at Islanders Dec 23, 2025 · NYI 2–1 · replay 46% for the winner
- Penguins at Blackhawks Dec 28, 2025 · PIT 7–3 · replay 46% for the winner
- Panthers at Hurricanes Dec 23, 2025 · FLA 5–2 · replay 51% for the winner
- Oilers at Flames Dec 27, 2025 · CGY 3–2 · replay 52% for the winner
- Avalanche at Golden Knights Dec 27, 2025 · COL 6–5 SO · replay 56% for the winner
- Rangers at Islanders Dec 27, 2025 · NYI 2–0 · replay 58% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Kings Dec 22, 2025 · CBJ 3–1 · replay 60% for the winner
- Flyers at Blackhawks Dec 23, 2025 · PHI 3–1 · replay 60% for the winner
- Ducks at Kings Dec 27, 2025 · LAK 6–1 · replay 62% for the winner