luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 27, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Kings, Dec 27, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Kings beat the Ducks 6–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 16:57 left): Drew Doughty scored on a tip from 8 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Kings.

Final

Anaheim Ducks 1
Los Angeles Kings 6

December 27, 2025 · Crypto.com Arena

Luck index +38 Kings lucky · −38 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 4, Kings win 6.

  1. 1 ANA 5 LAK 2
  2. 2 ANA 2 LAK 0
  3. 3 ANA 1 LAK 0
  4. 4 ANA 2 LAK 1
  5. 5 ANA 2 LAK 3
  6. 6 ANA 1 LAK 2
  7. 7 ANA 2 LAK 4
  8. 8 ANA 2 LAK 5
  9. 9 ANA 2 LAK 5
  10. 10 ANA 1 LAK 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.3 replays ended

Ducks win 38% of them, Kings 62%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+10.2%
Ducks by 26.9%
Ducks by 120.9%
Kings by 122.1%
Kings by 211.8%
Kings by 3+28.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 goals to the Kings: the final margin was Kings by 5, without the luck Kings by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks4212.39−1.39
Kings5262.88+3.12

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:08 Interference on the Ducks (Mikael Granlund): 2 minutes on the power play +2% LAK
P1 8:46 Interference on the Kings (Adrian Kempe): 2 minutes on the power play +2% ANA
P1 1:56 Slashing on the Ducks (Frank Vatrano): 2 minutes on the power play +1% LAK
P2 17:00 Holding on the Ducks (Ian Moore): 2 minutes on the power play +1% LAK
P2 11:00 Interference on the Kings (Brandt Clarke): 2 minutes on the power play 0% ANA
P3 14:46 Cross checking on the Ducks (Ryan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play 0% LAK

When it happened

Kings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kings were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:48 Ryan Poehling’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +3% LAK –
2 P1 16:57 Drew Doughty scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% LAK –
3 P1 16:04 Trevor Moore scored on a deflected shot from 12 feetShooting · 8% chance +12% LAK –
4 P1 9:39 Alex Laferriere scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 17% chance +7% LAK –
5 P1 9:08 Interference on the Ducks (Mikael Granlund): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +2% LAK –
6 P1 8:46 Interference on the Kings (Adrian Kempe): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +2% ANA –
7 P1 0:58 Quinton Byfield scored on a tip from 23 feetShooting · 7% chance +4% LAK –
8 P2 9:58 Mason McTavish scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 20% chance +2% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 12% · Kings 88%

Final margin
Kings by 5
Luck in goals
3.4 for the Kings
Luck-adjusted margin
Kings by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 38% · Kings 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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