luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 28, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Red Wings, Dec 28, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Red Wings beat the Maple Leafs 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Red Wings win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

The biggest swing (OT): the Red Wings won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

Final (OT)

Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Detroit Red Wings 3

December 28, 2025 · Little Caesars Arena

Luck index +43 Red Wings lucky · −43 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 4, Red Wings win 6.

  1. 1 TOR 4 DET 1
  2. 2 TOR 5 DET 3
  3. 3 TOR 2 DET 1
  4. 4 TOR 3 DET 2
  5. 5 TOR 2 DET 3
  6. 6 TOR 1 DET 2
  7. 7 TOR 3 DET 5
  8. 8 TOR 1 DET 3
  9. 9 TOR 4 DET 7
  10. 10 TOR 1 DET 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 43% of them, Red Wings 57%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+13.3%
Maple Leafs by 29.0%
Maple Leafs by 120.5%
Red Wings by 123.3%
Red Wings by 211.7%
Red Wings by 3+22.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 goals to the Red Wings: the final margin was Red Wings by 1, without the luck Red Wings by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs3922.45−0.45
Red Wings5222.79−0.79

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 16:31 Tripping on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P2 10:29 Slashing on the Red Wings (J.T. Compher): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P3 9:46 Holding the stick on the Maple Leafs (Bobby McMann): 2 minutes on the power play +8% DET

When it happened

Red Wings’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Red Wings were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 15:35 Matthew Knies scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 24% chance +15% TOR –
2 P2 0:59 Moritz Seider scored on a wrist shot from 51 feetShooting · 2% chance +25% DET –
3 P3 15:07 Nicholas Robertson scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 7% chance +26% TOR –
4 P3 14:44 Mason Appleton scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 8% chance +26% DET –
5 P3 9:46 Holding the stick on the Maple Leafs (Bobby McMann): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% DET –
6 P3 6:54 Jake McCabe missed the net with a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 28% chance +10% DET –
7 P3 1:30 Andrew Copp’s wrist shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance +5% TOR –
8 OT The Red Wings won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% DET –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 44% · Red Wings 56%

Final margin
Red Wings by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for the Red Wings
Luck-adjusted margin
Red Wings by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 43% · Red Wings 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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