luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 23, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Maple Leafs, Dec 23, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Penguins 6–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Penguins had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 14 points of win probability to the Penguins.

The biggest swing (P3, 8:25 left): Max Domi scored on a wrist shot from 17 feet, worth 28 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Toronto Maple Leafs 6

December 23, 2025 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +34 Maple Leafs lucky · −34 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 3, Maple Leafs win 7.

  1. 1 PIT 4 TOR 1
  2. 2 PIT 4 TOR 3
  3. 3 PIT 4 TOR 3
  4. 4 PIT 2 TOR 3
  5. 5 PIT 0 TOR 1
  6. 6 PIT 3 TOR 5
  7. 7 PIT 2 TOR 4
  8. 8 PIT 0 TOR 3
  9. 9 PIT 2 TOR 5
  10. 10 PIT 1 TOR 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Penguins win 34% of them, Maple Leafs 66%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+7.9%
Penguins by 26.8%
Penguins by 119.0%
Maple Leafs by 120.9%
Maple Leafs by 213.1%
Maple Leafs by 3+32.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 3, without the luck Maple Leafs by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins4032.26+0.74
Maple Leafs4443.15+0.85

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:34 A Penguins goal came off the board on review (goal interference) +17% TOR
P3 10:50 Tripping on the Penguins (Erik Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +7% TOR
P3 10:19 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Matias Maccelli): 2 minutes on the power play +7% PIT
P3 10:03 Slashing on the Penguins (Ben Kindel): 2 minutes on the power play +7% TOR
P3 0:45 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Philippe Myers): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:34 A Penguins goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals +17% TOR –
2 P1 10:53 William Nylander scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% TOR –
3 P1 10:09 Bryan Rust scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% PIT –
4 P1 6:26 Matias Maccelli scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 1% chance +17% TOR –
5 P2 12:22 Steven Lorentz scored on a backhand shot from 4 feetShooting · 23% chance +11% TOR –
6 P2 8:17 Rutger McGroarty scored on a wrist shot from 42 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% PIT –
7 P3 19:00 Anthony Mantha scored on a slap shot from 54 feetShooting · 3% chance +25% PIT –
8 P3 8:25 Max Domi scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 16% chance +28% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 7% · Maple Leafs 93%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 3
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 34% · Maple Leafs 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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