2025-26 regular season · December 27, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Bruins at Sabres, Dec 27, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Sabres beat the Bruins 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sabres win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Sabres.
The biggest swing (P2, 18:21 left): Ryan McLeod scored on a snap shot from 33 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Sabres.
Final
 Boston Bruins | 1 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Sabres | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Sabres lucky · −42 Bruins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bruins win 4, Sabres win 6.
- 1 BOS 3 BUF 0
- 2 BOS 4 BUF 2
- 3 BOS 3 BUF 2
- 4 BOS 2 BUF 1
- 5 BOS 2 BUF 3
- 6 BOS 4 BUF 5
- 7 BOS 1 BUF 3
- 8 BOS 1 BUF 4
- 9 BOS 0 BUF 3
- 10 BOS 1 BUF 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Bruins win 42% of them, Sabres 58%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bruins by 3+ | 12.8% |
| Bruins by 2 | 9.2% |
| Bruins by 1 | 20.6% |
| Sabres by 1 | 24.6% |
| Sabres by 2 | 10.8% |
| Sabres by 3+ | 22.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bruins | 43 | 1 | 2.75 | −1.75 |
 Sabres | 42 | 3 | 2.59 | +0.41 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 1:33 | High sticking double minor on the Bruins (Viktor Arvidsson): 4 minutes on the power play | +5% BUF |
| P3 12:59 | Hooking on the Bruins (Sean Kuraly): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% BUF |
| P3 6:20 | Holding on the Sabres (Michael Kesselring): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% BOS |
When it happened
Sabres’ chance of winning
As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 8:04 | David Pastrnak scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 5% chance | +17% BOS | – |
| 2 | P1 2:54 | Sean Kuraly’s snap shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance | +2% BUF | – |
| 3 | P2 18:21 | Ryan McLeod scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 7% chance | +18% BUF | – |
| 4 | P2 16:48 | Peyton Krebs scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 13% chance | +17% BUF | – |
| 5 | P2 16:01 | Casey Mittelstadt missed the net with a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 13% chance | +2% BUF | – |
| 6 | P2 12:06 | Mattias Samuelsson scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 3% chance | +14% BUF | – |
| 7 | P2 1:33 | High sticking double minor on the Bruins (Viktor Arvidsson): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% BUF | – |
| 8 | P3 12:59 | Hooking on the Bruins (Sean Kuraly): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +2% BUF | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bruins 16% · Sabres 84%
- Final margin
- Sabres by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for the Sabres
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sabres by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Bruins 42% · Sabres 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 12, 2025-26
- Sabres at Senators Dec 23, 2025 · BUF 3–2 OT · replay 29% for the winner
- Lightning at Panthers Dec 27, 2025 · TBL 4–2 · replay 31% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Dec 28, 2025 · TBL 5–4 SO · replay 35% for the winner
- Stars at Red Wings Dec 23, 2025 · DET 4–3 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Canadiens at Bruins Dec 23, 2025 · MTL 6–2 · replay 49% for the winner
- Panthers at Hurricanes Dec 23, 2025 · FLA 5–2 · replay 51% for the winner
- Senators at Maple Leafs Dec 27, 2025 · TOR 7–5 · replay 54% for the winner
- Blues at Lightning Dec 22, 2025 · TBL 4–1 · replay 56% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Red Wings Dec 28, 2025 · DET 3–2 OT · replay 57% for the winner
- Penguins at Maple Leafs Dec 23, 2025 · TOR 6–3 · replay 66% for the winner
- Red Wings at Hurricanes Dec 27, 2025 · CAR 5–2 · replay 80% for the winner
- Kraken at Ducks Dec 22, 2025 · SEA 3–1 · replay 24% for the winner