luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 23, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Wild, Dec 23, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Wild 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Predators.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Predators won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final (OT)

Nashville Predators 3
Minnesota Wild 2

December 23, 2025 · Grand Casino Arena

Luck index +43 Predators lucky · −43 Wild

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 6, Wild win 4.

  1. 1 NSH 6 MIN 2
  2. 2 NSH 3 MIN 0
  3. 3 NSH 4 MIN 1
  4. 4 NSH 2 MIN 0
  5. 5 NSH 1 MIN 0
  6. 6 NSH 3 MIN 2
  7. 7 NSH 2 MIN 3
  8. 8 NSH 2 MIN 3
  9. 9 NSH 3 MIN 5
  10. 10 NSH 0 MIN 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Predators win 57% of them, Wild 43%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+23.3%
Predators by 211.8%
Predators by 121.9%
Wild by 120.6%
Wild by 29.5%
Wild by 3+13.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators4022.60−0.60
Wild3922.54−0.54

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:30 High sticking on the Predators (Ryan O'Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MIN
P1 6:18 Tripping on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P1 3:53 Tripping on the Wild (Vladimir Tarasenko): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 18:46 Holding on the Wild (Kirill Kaprizov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 16:12 Tripping on the Predators (Nick Blankenburg): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MIN
P2 1:44 High sticking on the Wild (Jared Spurgeon): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NSH
P3 17:45 Tripping on the Predators (Tyson Jost): 2 minutes on the power play +6% MIN

When it happened

Wild’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Wild were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:00 Brock Faber scored on a slap shot from 56 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% MIN –
2 P1 5:32 Ryan O'Reilly scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% NSH –
3 P1 2:53 Roman Josi scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 7% chance +17% NSH –
4 P2 19:08 Joel Eriksson Ek scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 14% chance +17% MIN –
5 P2 1:44 High sticking on the Wild (Jared Spurgeon): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% NSH –
6 P3 17:45 Tripping on the Predators (Tyson Jost): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% MIN –
7 P3 16:32 Nick Blankenburg’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +5% MIN –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Predators won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 51% · Wild 49%

Final margin
Predators by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Predators 57% · Wild 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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