2025-26 regular season · December 15, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Panthers at Lightning, Dec 15, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Lightning 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Panthers.
The biggest swing (P1, 17:44 left): Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 23 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Florida Panthers | 5 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Panthers lucky · −48 Lightning
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Lightning win 5.
- 1 FLA 6 TBL 2
- 2 FLA 4 TBL 2
- 3 FLA 3 TBL 1
- 4 FLA 4 TBL 3
- 5 FLA 3 TBL 2
- 6 FLA 4 TBL 5
- 7 FLA 3 TBL 4
- 8 FLA 1 TBL 3
- 9 FLA 5 TBL 8
- 10 FLA 1 TBL 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 52% of them, Lightning 48%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 3+ | 17.7% |
| Panthers by 2 | 10.8% |
| Panthers by 1 | 23.3% |
| Lightning by 1 | 22.2% |
| Lightning by 2 | 9.9% |
| Lightning by 3+ | 16.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers | 29 | 5 | 2.12 | +2.88 |
 Lightning | 46 | 2 | 2.34 | −0.34 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:19 | Holding on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P1 11:20 | Interference on the Lightning (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P2 15:14 | Roughing on the Lightning (Charle-Edouard D'Astous): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P2 11:55 | Interference on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% TBL |
| P2 7:22 | Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% TBL |
| P2 3:25 | Tripping on the Lightning (Curtis Douglas): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% FLA |
| P3 17:49 | Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Panthers (FLA): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% TBL |
| P3 5:42 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Evan Rodrigues): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% TBL |
| P3 0:55 | Slashing on the Lightning (Yanni Gourde): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% FLA |
When it happened
Lightning’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:19 | Holding on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% TBL | – |
| 2 | P1 17:44 | Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% FLA | – |
| 3 | P1 16:12 | Anton Lundell scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 9% chance | +13% FLA | – |
| 4 | P2 15:14 | Roughing on the Lightning (Charle-Edouard D'Astous): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% FLA | – |
| 5 | P2 11:14 | Brayden Point’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +4% FLA | – |
| 6 | P2 8:12 | Brad Marchand scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 11% chance | +8% FLA | – |
| 7 | P3 17:49 | J.J. Moser scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Panthers (FLA): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +9% TBL | – |
| 8 | P3 13:23 | Carter Verhaeghe scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance | +4% FLA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 66% · Lightning 34%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.4 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 52% · Lightning 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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