luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 21, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Penguins, Dec 21, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Canadiens 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Canadiens had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 17 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The biggest swing (SO): the Penguins won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final (SO)

Montreal Canadiens 3
Pittsburgh Penguins 4

December 21, 2025 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +26 Penguins lucky · −26 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 3, Penguins win 7.

  1. 1 MTL 4 PIT 1
  2. 2 MTL 4 PIT 3
  3. 3 MTL 5 PIT 4
  4. 4 MTL 1 PIT 2
  5. 5 MTL 1 PIT 2
  6. 6 MTL 2 PIT 4
  7. 7 MTL 2 PIT 5
  8. 8 MTL 1 PIT 4
  9. 9 MTL 1 PIT 5
  10. 10 MTL 1 PIT 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canadiens win 26% of them, Penguins 74%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+5.3%
Canadiens by 24.6%
Canadiens by 116.2%
Penguins by 117.8%
Penguins by 211.8%
Penguins by 3+44.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Penguins by 1, without the luck Penguins by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3331.84+1.16
Penguins5033.48−0.48

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:28 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canadiens (Noah Dobson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 10:41 Tripping on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 7:58 Tripping on the Canadiens (Adam Engstrom): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P3 13:17 Slashing on the Penguins (Tommy Novak): 2 minutes on the power play +7% MTL
P3 8:37 Hooking on the Canadiens (Owen Beck): 2 minutes on the power play +8% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:29 Oliver Kapanen scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% MTL –
2 P1 12:02 Sidney Crosby scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 14% chance +15% PIT –
3 P1 7:20 Rickard Rakell scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 28% chance +12% PIT –
4 P2 16:06 Ivan Demidov scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 3% chance +19% MTL –
5 P2 8:09 Noel Acciari scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 5% chance +20% PIT –
6 P3 15:56 Noah Dobson scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 12% chance +24% MTL –
7 P3 8:37 Hooking on the Canadiens (Owen Beck): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% PIT –
8 SO The Penguins won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 23% · Penguins 77%

Final margin
Penguins by 1
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 26% · Penguins 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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