luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 18, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Senators, Dec 18, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Penguins 4–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Senators win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Senators.

The biggest swing (P2, 18:26 left): David Perron scored on a deflected shot from 5 feet, worth 13 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Ottawa Senators 4

December 18, 2025 · Canadian Tire Centre

Luck index +42 Senators lucky · −42 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 4, Senators win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 6 OTT 3
  2. 2 PIT 3 OTT 1
  3. 3 PIT 4 OTT 3
  4. 4 PIT 1 OTT 0
  5. 5 PIT 1 OTT 2
  6. 6 PIT 1 OTT 2
  7. 7 PIT 2 OTT 3
  8. 8 PIT 4 OTT 6
  9. 9 PIT 1 OTT 4
  10. 10 PIT 0 OTT 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Penguins win 42% of them, Senators 58%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+12.9%
Penguins by 28.7%
Penguins by 120.9%
Senators by 122.5%
Senators by 211.6%
Senators by 3+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Senators by 4, without the luck Senators by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins4302.43−2.43
Senators3842.72+1.28

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:42 Tripping on the Penguins (Arturs Silovs): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 2:11 Interference on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 11:49 Tripping on the Senators (Claude Giroux): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PIT
P2 8:39 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power play +1% OTT
P3 0:54 Roughing on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power play 0% OTT

When it happened

Senators’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Senators were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:43 Tim Stützle’s backhand shot from 2 feet was savedShooting · 31% chance +5% PIT –
2 P1 18:42 Tripping on the Penguins (Arturs Silovs): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% OTT –
3 P1 17:44 Brady Tkachuk scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 25% chance +12% OTT –
4 P1 2:11 Interference on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
5 P1 1:29 Rickard Rakell’s snap shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +5% OTT –
6 P2 19:08 Rickard Rakell’s tip from 3 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +6% OTT –
7 P2 18:26 David Perron scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% OTT –
8 P2 15:10 Claude Giroux scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 13% chance +7% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 27% · Senators 73%

Final margin
Senators by 4
Luck in goals
2.8 for the Senators
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 42% · Senators 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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