luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 18, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Flames, Dec 18, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Kraken 4–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P3, 8:41 left): Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 36 feet, worth 32 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final

Seattle Kraken 2
Calgary Flames 4

December 18, 2025 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +37 Flames lucky · −37 Kraken

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 4, Flames win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 5 CGY 2
  2. 2 SEA 6 CGY 4
  3. 3 SEA 1 CGY 0
  4. 4 SEA 3 CGY 2
  5. 5 SEA 0 CGY 1
  6. 6 SEA 1 CGY 2
  7. 7 SEA 1 CGY 3
  8. 8 SEA 1 CGY 4
  9. 9 SEA 1 CGY 4
  10. 10 SEA 0 CGY 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Kraken win 37% of them, Flames 63%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+9.3%
Kraken by 27.4%
Kraken by 120.5%
Flames by 120.6%
Flames by 214.3%
Flames by 3+28.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 2, without the luck Flames by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken2822.05−0.05
Flames5632.86+0.14

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:22 Delaying game puck over glass on the Kraken (Adam Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 6:54 Hooking on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 4:18 Interference goalkeeper on the Flames (Jonathan Huberdeau): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SEA
P2 1:28 Tripping on the Kraken (Chandler Stephenson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 13:57 Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 11:24 High sticking on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 12:08 Chandler Stephenson scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 18% chance +17% SEA –
2 P2 9:40 Mikael Backlund scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 11% chance +19% CGY –
3 P2 4:18 Interference goalkeeper on the Flames (Jonathan Huberdeau): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SEA –
4 P2 2:44 Kaapo Kakko scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance +21% SEA –
5 P3 13:57 Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
6 P3 11:24 High sticking on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
7 P3 9:56 Nazem Kadri scored on a slap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance +30% CGY –
8 P3 8:41 Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 3% chance +32% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 18% · Flames 82%

Final margin
Flames by 2
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Flames by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 37% · Flames 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 11 2025-26 games · Kraken · Flames

More from week 11, 2025-26

Every game of week 11, 2025-26