luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 20, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blues at Panthers, Dec 20, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Blues beat the Panthers 6–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blues win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Blues.

The biggest swing (P2, 0:01 left): Justin Faulk scored on a slap shot from 45 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Blues.

Final

St. Louis Blues 6
Florida Panthers 2

December 20, 2025 · Amerant Bank Arena

Luck index +43 Blues lucky · −43 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blues win 6, Panthers win 4.

  1. 1 STL 6 FLA 2
  2. 2 STL 3 FLA 0
  3. 3 STL 4 FLA 1
  4. 4 STL 3 FLA 1
  5. 5 STL 3 FLA 2
  6. 6 STL 3 FLA 2
  7. 7 STL 1 FLA 2
  8. 8 STL 4 FLA 5
  9. 9 STL 3 FLA 5
  10. 10 STL 1 FLA 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Blues win 57% of them, Panthers 43%. The line is what actually happened: Blues by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blues by 3+24.7%
Blues by 211.3%
Blues by 121.5%
Panthers by 121.5%
Panthers by 28.8%
Panthers by 3+12.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 goals to the Blues: the final margin was Blues by 4, without the luck Blues by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blues4452.73+2.27
Panthers3822.33−0.33

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 19:20 Hooking on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power play +4% STL
P2 17:51 High sticking on the Panthers (Jack Studnicka): 2 minutes on the power play +3% STL
P2 12:25 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blues (STL): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 8:16 Holding on the Blues (Colton Parayko): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 6:57 Interference on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power play +5% STL
P3 17:14 Tripping on the Blues (Tyler Tucker): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P3 3:45 High sticking on the Blues (Justin Faulk): 2 minutes on the power play 0% FLA

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Blues were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:01 Jake Neighbours scored on a tip from 17 feetShooting · 9% chance +16% STL –
2 P2 18:05 Jonatan Berggren scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% STL –
3 P2 12:25 A.J. Greer scored on a deflected shot from 6 feetShooting · 11% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blues (STL): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +19% FLA –
4 P2 7:15 Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 18% chance +18% FLA –
5 P2 6:57 Interference on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% STL –
6 P2 0:01 Justin Faulk scored on a slap shot from 45 feetShooting · 3% chance +25% STL –
7 P3 17:14 Tripping on the Blues (Tyler Tucker): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% FLA –
8 P3 7:58 Jake Neighbours scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 15% chance +11% STL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blues 87% · Panthers 13%

Final margin
Blues by 4
Luck in goals
1.9 for the Blues
Luck-adjusted margin
Blues by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Blues 57% · Panthers 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 11 2025-26 games · Blues · Panthers

More from week 11, 2025-26

Every game of week 11, 2025-26