2025-26 regular season · December 17, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Predators, Dec 17, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Hurricanes beat the Predators 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Predators had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 9 points of win probability to the Predators.
The biggest swing (P1, 7:00 left): Jackson Blake scored on a backhand shot from 5 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.
Final
 Carolina Hurricanes | 4 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Hurricanes lucky · −30 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 7, Predators win 3.
- 1 CAR 6 NSH 1
- 2 CAR 5 NSH 1
- 3 CAR 4 NSH 1
- 4 CAR 6 NSH 3
- 5 CAR 3 NSH 1
- 6 CAR 3 NSH 1
- 7 CAR 3 NSH 2
- 8 CAR 1 NSH 2
- 9 CAR 3 NSH 4
- 10 CAR 2 NSH 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Hurricanes win 70% of them, Predators 30%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 40.7% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 11.6% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 17.5% |
| Predators by 1 | 18.4% |
| Predators by 2 | 5.6% |
| Predators by 3+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 52 | 3 | 3.52 | −0.52 |
 Predators | 41 | 1 | 2.01 | −1.01 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:32 | Hooking on the Predators (Brady Skjei): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 5:51 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 14:40 | High sticking on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P2 12:59 | High sticking on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 9:35 | Holding on the Hurricanes (Taylor Hall): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 6:06 | Tripping on the Predators (Ryan O'Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CAR |
| P3 18:36 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Predators (Nick Perbix): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CAR |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 7:00 | Jackson Blake scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 13% chance | +15% CAR | – |
| 2 | P2 14:40 | High sticking on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CAR | – |
| 3 | P2 12:59 | High sticking on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NSH | – |
| 4 | P2 9:35 | Holding on the Hurricanes (Taylor Hall): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NSH | – |
| 5 | P2 6:06 | Tripping on the Predators (Ryan O'Reilly): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CAR | – |
| 6 | P3 18:36 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Predators (Nick Perbix): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CAR | – |
| 7 | P3 17:17 | Sebastian Aho scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% CAR | – |
| 8 | P3 15:27 | Seth Jarvis scored on a slap shot from 34 feetShooting · 7% chance | +5% CAR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 95% · Predators 5%
- Final margin
- Hurricanes by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Hurricanes
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 70% · Predators 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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