luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 11, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Golden Knights at Flyers, Dec 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Golden Knights beat the Flyers 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Golden Knights win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Golden Knights won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.

Final (OT)

Vegas Golden Knights 3
Philadelphia Flyers 2

December 11, 2025 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +43 Golden Knights lucky · −43 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Golden Knights win 6, Flyers win 4.

  1. 1 VGK 4 PHI 0
  2. 2 VGK 4 PHI 1
  3. 3 VGK 5 PHI 2
  4. 4 VGK 3 PHI 1
  5. 5 VGK 2 PHI 1
  6. 6 VGK 2 PHI 1
  7. 7 VGK 4 PHI 5
  8. 8 VGK 2 PHI 3
  9. 9 VGK 2 PHI 4
  10. 10 VGK 2 PHI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Golden Knights win 57% of them, Flyers 43%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Golden Knights by 3+23.2%
Golden Knights by 211.6%
Golden Knights by 122.2%
Flyers by 122.6%
Flyers by 28.6%
Flyers by 3+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Golden Knights: the final margin was Golden Knights by 1, without the luck Golden Knights by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Golden Knights3322.58−0.58
Flyers3221.94+0.06

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 0:17 Tripping on the Golden Knights (Ivan Barbashev): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 16:26 Holding on the Flyers (Carl Grundstrom): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VGK
P2 7:55 Too many men on the ice on the Flyers (PHI): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VGK
P2 6:28 Tripping on the Golden Knights (Pavel Dorofeyev): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 4:48 Elbowing on the Golden Knights (Brett Howden): 2 minutes on the power play +9% PHI

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Golden Knights were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:53 Zach Whitecloud scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% VGK –
2 P1 3:49 Trevor Zegras scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 14% chance +16% PHI –
3 P2 7:55 Too many men on the ice on the Flyers (PHI): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% VGK –
4 P2 7:07 Mark Stone scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 20% chance +18% VGK –
5 P2 3:52 Noah Juulsen scored on a slap shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance +22% PHI –
6 P3 9:56 Noah Cates’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +5% VGK –
7 P3 4:48 Elbowing on the Golden Knights (Brett Howden): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% PHI –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Golden Knights won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% VGK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Golden Knights 61% · Flyers 39%

Final margin
Golden Knights by 1
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Golden Knights
Luck-adjusted margin
Golden Knights by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Golden Knights 57% · Flyers 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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