luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 11, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Maple Leafs, Dec 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Sharks beat the Maple Leafs 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sharks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Sharks won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Sharks.

Final (OT)

San Jose Sharks 3
Toronto Maple Leafs 2

December 11, 2025 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +48 Sharks lucky · −48 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 5, Maple Leafs win 5.

  1. 1 SJS 5 TOR 1
  2. 2 SJS 8 TOR 5
  3. 3 SJS 3 TOR 1
  4. 4 SJS 3 TOR 2
  5. 5 SJS 4 TOR 3
  6. 6 SJS 2 TOR 3
  7. 7 SJS 2 TOR 3
  8. 8 SJS 1 TOR 3
  9. 9 SJS 1 TOR 4
  10. 10 SJS 1 TOR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Sharks win 52% of them, Maple Leafs 48%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+21.5%
Sharks by 210.2%
Sharks by 120.3%
Maple Leafs by 120.1%
Maple Leafs by 210.2%
Maple Leafs by 3+17.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 goals to the Sharks: the final margin was Sharks by 1, without the luck Sharks by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks3923.02−1.02
Maple Leafs4422.64−0.64

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:29 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 14:02 Tripping on the Sharks (John Klingberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 5:56 Hooking on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P3 13:32 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P3 11:09 A Sharks goal came off the board on review (off side) +22% TOR
P3 10:57 Hooking on the Sharks (Ty Dellandrea): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 5:27 Dakota Joshua scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 10% chance +16% TOR –
2 P2 5:28 Auston Matthews scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% TOR –
3 P2 4:29 Dmitry Orlov scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 5% chance +14% SJS –
4 P3 13:32 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SJS –
5 P3 11:09 A Sharks goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +22% TOR –
6 P3 10:57 Hooking on the Sharks (Ty Dellandrea): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% TOR –
7 P3 1:25 John Klingberg scored on a slap shot from 51 feetShooting · 4% chance +42% SJS –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Sharks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% SJS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 57% · Maple Leafs 43%

Final margin
Sharks by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for the Sharks
Luck-adjusted margin
Sharks by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 52% · Maple Leafs 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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