luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 9, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blue Jackets at Hurricanes, Dec 9, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Blue Jackets 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Blue Jackets had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

The biggest swing (P3, 12:07 left): Eric Robinson scored on a snap shot from 14 feet, worth 27 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final

Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Carolina Hurricanes 4

December 9, 2025 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +26 Hurricanes lucky · −26 Blue Jackets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 3, Hurricanes win 7.

  1. 1 CBJ 5 CAR 2
  2. 2 CBJ 3 CAR 2
  3. 3 CBJ 3 CAR 2
  4. 4 CBJ 2 CAR 3
  5. 5 CBJ 1 CAR 3
  6. 6 CBJ 3 CAR 6
  7. 7 CBJ 2 CAR 5
  8. 8 CBJ 3 CAR 7
  9. 9 CBJ 4 CAR 9
  10. 10 CBJ 1 CAR 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Blue Jackets win 26% of them, Hurricanes 74%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blue Jackets by 3+6.5%
Blue Jackets by 24.4%
Blue Jackets by 115.0%
Hurricanes by 114.7%
Hurricanes by 210.3%
Hurricanes by 3+49.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Hurricanes by 3, without the luck Hurricanes by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blue Jackets3512.63−1.63
Hurricanes5634.59−1.59

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:32 Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Luca Del Bel Belluz): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 7:54 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Taylor Hall): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ
P1 5:06 Roughing on the Blue Jackets (Miles Wood): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P3 14:49 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power play +7% CBJ
P3 10:27 Slashing on the Blue Jackets (Cole Sillinger): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P3 6:42 High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Kirill Marchenko): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P3 1:22 Hooking on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CBJ

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Blue Jackets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:32 Jordan Staal’s wraparound from 2 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +5% CBJ –
2 P1 7:21 Dmitri Voronkov scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% CBJ –
3 P2 10:18 Seth Jarvis scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 10% chance +19% CAR –
4 P3 14:49 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% CBJ –
5 P3 12:07 Eric Robinson scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 11% chance +27% CAR –
6 P3 10:27 Slashing on the Blue Jackets (Cole Sillinger): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CAR –
7 P3 6:42 High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Kirill Marchenko): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CAR –
8 P3 6:22 Jordan Staal scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +10% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blue Jackets 9% · Hurricanes 91%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 3
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Hurricanes
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Blue Jackets 26% · Hurricanes 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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