luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 11, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Stars at Wild, Dec 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Wild beat the Stars 5–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Wild win 8 of 10.

The biggest swing (P3, 11:20 left): Marcus Johansson scored on a snap shot from 14 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Wild.

Final

Dallas Stars 2
Minnesota Wild 5

December 11, 2025 · Grand Casino Arena

Luck index +17 Wild about even · −17 Stars

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stars win 2, Wild win 8.

  1. 1 DAL 3 MIN 1
  2. 2 DAL 4 MIN 3
  3. 3 DAL 2 MIN 3
  4. 4 DAL 3 MIN 4
  5. 5 DAL 1 MIN 3
  6. 6 DAL 0 MIN 3
  7. 7 DAL 0 MIN 3
  8. 8 DAL 1 MIN 5
  9. 9 DAL 1 MIN 6
  10. 10 DAL 0 MIN 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Stars win 17% of them, Wild 83%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stars by 3+2.4%
Stars by 23.1%
Stars by 112.0%
Wild by 114.6%
Wild by 211.4%
Wild by 3+56.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Stars: the final margin was Wild by 3, without the luck Wild by 3.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stars2921.25+0.75
Wild4933.84−0.84

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:09 Hooking on the Wild (Ryan Hartman): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P2 17:43 High sticking on the Stars (Matt Duchene): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P2 10:22 Interference on the Stars (Roope Hintz): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MIN
P2 0:15 Holding on the Stars (Colin Blackwell): 2 minutes on the power play +6% MIN

When it happened

Wild’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Wild were ahead in it, below while the Stars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:28 Jason Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% DAL –
2 P1 3:50 Joel Eriksson Ek scored on a snap shot from 4 feetShooting · 36% chance +12% MIN –
3 P2 17:35 Joel Eriksson Ek’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +6% DAL –
4 P2 10:22 Interference on the Stars (Roope Hintz): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% MIN –
5 P2 9:41 Miro Heiskanen scored on a slap shot from 55 feetShooting · 3% chance +21% DAL –
6 P2 2:30 Zach Bogosian scored on a slap shot from 58 feetShooting · 1% chance +24% MIN –
7 P2 0:15 Holding on the Stars (Colin Blackwell): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% MIN –
8 P3 11:20 Marcus Johansson scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 15% chance +26% MIN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stars 2% · Wild 98%

Final margin
Wild by 3
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Stars
Luck-adjusted margin
Wild by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Stars 17% · Wild 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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