luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 13, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flames at Kings, Dec 13, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Kings 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Flames.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Flames won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final (OT)

Calgary Flames 2
Los Angeles Kings 1

December 13, 2025 · Crypto.com Arena

Luck index +51 Flames lucky · −51 Kings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flames win 5, Kings win 5.

  1. 1 CGY 3 LAK 0
  2. 2 CGY 5 LAK 2
  3. 3 CGY 4 LAK 2
  4. 4 CGY 4 LAK 3
  5. 5 CGY 3 LAK 2
  6. 6 CGY 2 LAK 3
  7. 7 CGY 1 LAK 2
  8. 8 CGY 1 LAK 3
  9. 9 CGY 1 LAK 4
  10. 10 CGY 2 LAK 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Flames win 49% of them, Kings 51%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flames by 3+19.1%
Flames by 29.5%
Flames by 120.2%
Kings by 121.4%
Kings by 29.8%
Kings by 3+19.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flames4512.89−1.89
Kings4212.92−1.92

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:26 Tripping on the Kings (Alex Laferriere): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 19:08 Hooking on the Kings (Kevin Fiala): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 13:40 Holding on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power play +4% LAK
P2 10:53 Slashing on the Kings (Brian Dumoulin): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 19:37 Tripping on the Flames (Jonathan Huberdeau): 2 minutes on the power play +6% LAK
P3 13:48 Hooking on the Kings (Cody Ceci): 2 minutes on the power play +7% CGY

When it happened

Kings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kings were ahead in it, below while the Flames were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:50 Adrian Kempe scored on a slap shot from 27 feetShooting · 13% chance +15% LAK –
2 P2 13:19 Blake Coleman scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 12% chance +18% CGY –
3 P2 12:42 Joel Armia’s deflected shot from 2 feet was savedShooting · 35% chance +7% CGY –
4 P2 10:53 Slashing on the Kings (Brian Dumoulin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
5 P3 19:37 Tripping on the Flames (Jonathan Huberdeau): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% LAK –
6 P3 13:48 Hooking on the Kings (Cody Ceci): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% CGY –
7 P3 13:02 Joel Armia’s deflected shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +5% CGY –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Flames won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flames 48% · Kings 52%

Final margin
Flames by 1
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Kings by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Flames 49% · Kings 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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