luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 8, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Lightning at Maple Leafs, Dec 8, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Lightning 2–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 32 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The biggest swing (P1, 3:34 left): Morgan Rielly scored on a backhand shot from 10 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Toronto Maple Leafs 2

December 8, 2025 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +45 Maple Leafs lucky · −45 Lightning

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lightning win 4, Maple Leafs win 6.

  1. 1 TBL 3 TOR 0
  2. 2 TBL 3 TOR 1
  3. 3 TBL 1 TOR 0
  4. 4 TBL 3 TOR 2
  5. 5 TBL 2 TOR 3
  6. 6 TBL 4 TOR 5
  7. 7 TBL 1 TOR 2
  8. 8 TBL 2 TOR 4
  9. 9 TBL 1 TOR 4
  10. 10 TBL 0 TOR 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lightning win 45% of them, Maple Leafs 55%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lightning by 3+12.4%
Lightning by 210.3%
Lightning by 121.9%
Maple Leafs by 126.1%
Maple Leafs by 210.8%
Maple Leafs by 3+18.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 2, without the luck Maple Leafs by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Lightning4102.01−2.01
Maple Leafs3612.00−1.00

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:34 Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Lightning (Jack Finley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 1:17 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P3 4:57 Hooking on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TOR

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Lightning were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:26 Steven Lorentz’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +3% TBL –
2 P1 10:34 Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Lightning (Jack Finley): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% TOR –
3 P1 3:34 Morgan Rielly scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance +16% TOR –
4 P2 1:17 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% TBL –
5 P3 19:17 Jake Guentzel’s deflected shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance +3% TOR –
6 P3 10:07 Anthony Cirelli’s backhand shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 10% chance +3% TOR –
7 P3 4:57 Hooking on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% TOR –
8 P3 1:33 Scott Laughton missed the net with a wrist shot from 23 feetEmpty-net goals · 77% chance +4% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lightning 18% · Maple Leafs 82%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 2
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Lightning 45% · Maple Leafs 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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