luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 10, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Red Wings at Flames, Dec 10, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Red Wings beat the Flames 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Red Wings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

The biggest swing (P1, 15:27 left): Axel Sandin-Pellikka scored on a slap shot from 31 feet, worth 13 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

Final

Detroit Red Wings 4
Calgary Flames 3

December 10, 2025 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +50 Red Wings lucky · −50 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Red Wings win 5, Flames win 5.

  1. 1 DET 5 CGY 1
  2. 2 DET 6 CGY 3
  3. 3 DET 3 CGY 1
  4. 4 DET 2 CGY 1
  5. 5 DET 3 CGY 2
  6. 6 DET 0 CGY 1
  7. 7 DET 2 CGY 3
  8. 8 DET 2 CGY 4
  9. 9 DET 2 CGY 5
  10. 10 DET 0 CGY 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Red Wings win 50% of them, Flames 50%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Red Wings by 3+18.2%
Red Wings by 210.6%
Red Wings by 120.7%
Flames by 121.1%
Flames by 210.3%
Flames by 3+19.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Red Wings: the final margin was Red Wings by 1, without the luck Flames by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Red Wings3642.73+1.27
Flames5533.14−0.14

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 17:36 Holding on the Red Wings (Marco Kasper): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CGY
P2 16:09 Tripping on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DET
P2 15:33 Tripping on the Red Wings (Dylan Larkin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CGY
P2 10:25 Holding on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CGY
P3 13:27 Roughing on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play 0% DET

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Red Wings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:58 Alex DeBrincat scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% DET –
2 P1 18:07 Blake Coleman missed the net with a between-the-legs shot from 8 feetShooting · 27% chance +4% DET –
3 P1 15:27 Axel Sandin-Pellikka scored on a slap shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance +13% DET –
4 P2 17:36 Holding on the Red Wings (Marco Kasper): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% CGY –
5 P2 12:19 Alex DeBrincat scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 15% chance +8% DET –
6 P2 10:51 Dylan Larkin scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 14% chance +3% DET –
7 P3 10:53 Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 5% chance +4% CGY –
8 P3 5:20 MacKenzie Weegar scored on a slap shot from 58 feetShooting · 2% chance +11% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Red Wings 42% · Flames 58%

Final margin
Red Wings by 1
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Red Wings
Luck-adjusted margin
Flames by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Red Wings 50% · Flames 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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