luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 11, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Islanders, Dec 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Ducks 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Islanders win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 19 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The biggest swing (P1, 11:42 left): Travis Mitchell scored on a wrist shot from 16 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final

Anaheim Ducks 2
New York Islanders 5

December 11, 2025 · UBS Arena

Luck index +44 Islanders lucky · −44 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 4, Islanders win 6.

  1. 1 ANA 5 NYI 2
  2. 2 ANA 4 NYI 2
  3. 3 ANA 4 NYI 3
  4. 4 ANA 4 NYI 3
  5. 5 ANA 2 NYI 3
  6. 6 ANA 4 NYI 5
  7. 7 ANA 2 NYI 4
  8. 8 ANA 1 NYI 4
  9. 9 ANA 1 NYI 4
  10. 10 ANA 1 NYI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Ducks win 44% of them, Islanders 56%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+14.8%
Ducks by 28.8%
Ducks by 120.0%
Islanders by 120.1%
Islanders by 210.7%
Islanders by 3+25.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 3, without the luck Islanders by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks5923.38−1.38
Islanders5153.08+1.92

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:27 High sticking on the Ducks (Ryan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P1 2:37 Boarding on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P2 15:14 Holding on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play +1% NYI
P2 14:35 Hooking on the Islanders (Anthony Duclair): 2 minutes on the power play +1% ANA
P3 18:12 Hooking on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +2% NYI

When it happened

Islanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Islanders were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:42 Travis Mitchell scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% NYI –
2 P1 11:27 High sticking on the Ducks (Ryan Strome): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% NYI –
3 P1 9:44 Anders Lee scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance +12% NYI –
4 P1 0:54 Anders Lee scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 13% chance +7% NYI –
5 P1 0:37 Chris Kreider’s snap shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 43% chance +4% NYI –
6 P2 14:26 Leo Carlsson scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 8% chance +7% ANA –
7 P3 17:23 Troy Terry scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 17% chance +12% ANA –
8 P3 13:54 Simon Holmstrom scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 26% · Islanders 74%

Final margin
Islanders by 3
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Islanders by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 44% · Islanders 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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