luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 20, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Devils at Panthers, Nov 20, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Devils 1–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Devils had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 14 points of win probability to the Devils.

The biggest swing (P1, 7:02 left): Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 21 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

New Jersey Devils 0
Florida Panthers 1

November 20, 2025 · Amerant Bank Arena

Luck index +37 Panthers lucky · −37 Devils

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Devils win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 NJD 4 FLA 1
  2. 2 NJD 3 FLA 1
  3. 3 NJD 2 FLA 1
  4. 4 NJD 2 FLA 1
  5. 5 NJD 2 FLA 3
  6. 6 NJD 2 FLA 3
  7. 7 NJD 1 FLA 3
  8. 8 NJD 1 FLA 4
  9. 9 NJD 3 FLA 6
  10. 10 NJD 2 FLA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Devils win 37% of them, Panthers 63%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Devils by 3+8.0%
Devils by 27.2%
Devils by 122.0%
Panthers by 122.9%
Panthers by 212.4%
Panthers by 3+27.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 1, without the luck Panthers by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Devils4002.36−2.36
Panthers4612.60−1.60

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 3:53 Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 1:36 Tripping on the Panthers (A.J. Greer): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NJD
P3 9:25 Hooking on the Devils (Simon Nemec): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Devils were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 7:02 Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 7% chance +16% FLA –
2 P2 3:53 Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NJD –
3 P2 1:36 Tripping on the Panthers (A.J. Greer): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NJD –
4 P2 1:23 Stefan Noesen’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +5% FLA –
5 P3 9:25 Hooking on the Devils (Simon Nemec): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% FLA –
6 P3 1:09 Nico Hischier’s wrist shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +7% FLA –
7 P3 1:04 Timo Meier missed the net with a deflected shot from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance +5% FLA –
8 P3 0:58 Dawson Mercer’s wrist shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance +5% FLA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Devils 46% · Panthers 54%

Final margin
Panthers by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Devils 37% · Panthers 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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