luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 22, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Canadiens, Nov 22, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 7:49 left): Lane Hutson scored on a snap shot from 21 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Montreal Canadiens 5

November 22, 2025 · Centre Bell

Luck index +20 Canadiens about even · −20 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 2, Canadiens win 8.

  1. 1 TOR 4 MTL 2
  2. 2 TOR 5 MTL 4
  3. 3 TOR 2 MTL 3
  4. 4 TOR 2 MTL 3
  5. 5 TOR 2 MTL 4
  6. 6 TOR 1 MTL 4
  7. 7 TOR 3 MTL 6
  8. 8 TOR 0 MTL 4
  9. 9 TOR 1 MTL 6
  10. 10 TOR 2 MTL 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 20% of them, Canadiens 80%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+2.8%
Maple Leafs by 23.5%
Maple Leafs by 114.1%
Canadiens by 116.9%
Canadiens by 212.9%
Canadiens by 3+49.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 3, without the luck Canadiens by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs3821.55+0.45
Canadiens4443.57+0.43

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:21 Roughing on the Canadiens (Jayden Struble): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 5:30 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (William Nylander): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL
P2 13:14 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (John Tavares): 2 minutes on the power play +1% MTL
P2 10:08 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +1% MTL
P2 1:47 Too many men on the ice on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P3 5:34 Slashing on the Canadiens (Florian Xhekaj): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TOR

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:23 Steven Lorentz’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +3% MTL –
2 P1 10:21 Roughing on the Canadiens (Jayden Struble): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% TOR –
3 P1 7:49 Lane Hutson scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% MTL –
4 P1 6:27 Noah Dobson scored on a slap shot from 48 feetShooting · 3% chance +13% MTL –
5 P1 5:30 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (William Nylander): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% MTL –
6 P2 15:51 Noah Dobson scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 8% chance +7% MTL –
7 P2 6:49 Josh Anderson scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 5% chance +2% MTL –
8 P2 2:41 Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored on a snap shot from 43 feetShooting · 5% chance +2% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 5% · Canadiens 95%

Final margin
Canadiens by 3
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Canadiens by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 20% · Canadiens 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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