luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 17, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Blue Jackets, Nov 17, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Blue Jackets beat the Canadiens 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blue Jackets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

The biggest swing (SO): the Blue Jackets won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

Final (SO)

Montreal Canadiens 3
Columbus Blue Jackets 4

November 17, 2025 · Nationwide Arena

Luck index +52 Blue Jackets lucky · −52 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 5, Blue Jackets win 5.

  1. 1 MTL 4 CBJ 1
  2. 2 MTL 4 CBJ 1
  3. 3 MTL 2 CBJ 0
  4. 4 MTL 4 CBJ 3
  5. 5 MTL 2 CBJ 1
  6. 6 MTL 3 CBJ 4
  7. 7 MTL 3 CBJ 4
  8. 8 MTL 1 CBJ 2
  9. 9 MTL 1 CBJ 4
  10. 10 MTL 1 CBJ 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canadiens win 52% of them, Blue Jackets 48%. The line is what actually happened: Blue Jackets by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+17.8%
Canadiens by 210.9%
Canadiens by 123.5%
Blue Jackets by 124.4%
Blue Jackets by 210.4%
Blue Jackets by 3+13.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Blue Jackets: the final margin was Blue Jackets by 1, without the luck Canadiens by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3932.37+0.63
Blue Jackets3131.93+1.07

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 9:34 Hooking on the Canadiens (Jared Davidson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ
P2 7:55 Slashing on the Canadiens (Nick Suzuki): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ

When it happened

Blue Jackets’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blue Jackets were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:02 Zach Werenski scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% CBJ –
2 P2 15:13 Oliver Kapanen scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 13% chance +17% MTL –
3 P2 10:13 Adam Fantilli scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 14% chance +18% CBJ –
4 P2 6:28 Dmitri Voronkov scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% CBJ –
5 P3 11:32 Josh Anderson scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 11% chance +12% MTL –
6 P3 7:34 Oliver Kapanen missed the net with a deflected shot from 4 feetShooting · 17% chance +6% CBJ –
7 P3 1:19 Lane Hutson scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 3% chance +42% MTL –
8 SO The Blue Jackets won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% CBJ –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 59% · Blue Jackets 41%

Final margin
Blue Jackets by 1
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Blue Jackets
Luck-adjusted margin
Canadiens by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 52% · Blue Jackets 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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