luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 23, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Islanders, Nov 23, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Kraken 1–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Kraken had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 55 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (SO): the Islanders won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final (SO)

Seattle Kraken 0
New York Islanders 1

November 23, 2025 · UBS Arena

Luck index +34 Islanders lucky · −34 Kraken

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 3, Islanders win 7.

  1. 1 SEA 6 NYI 3
  2. 2 SEA 3 NYI 2
  3. 3 SEA 2 NYI 1
  4. 4 SEA 3 NYI 4
  5. 5 SEA 1 NYI 2
  6. 6 SEA 2 NYI 4
  7. 7 SEA 2 NYI 5
  8. 8 SEA 1 NYI 4
  9. 9 SEA 1 NYI 5
  10. 10 SEA 1 NYI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Kraken win 34% of them, Islanders 66%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+7.5%
Kraken by 27.3%
Kraken by 119.0%
Islanders by 120.1%
Islanders by 212.4%
Islanders by 3+33.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 1, without the luck Islanders by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken3301.91−1.91
Islanders4803.18−3.18

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:02 Hooking on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P2 12:04 Tripping on the Islanders (Simon Holmstrom): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SEA
OT 0:19 Slashing on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 2 minutes on the power play +12% NYI

When it happened

Islanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Islanders were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:03 Emil Heineman missed the net with a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chanceMathew Barzal’s backhand shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +8% SEA –
2 P2 12:04 Tripping on the Islanders (Simon Holmstrom): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SEA –
3 P3 14:23 Casey Cizikas’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 31% chance +9% SEA –
4 P3 11:12 Eeli Tolvanen missed the net with a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 19% chance +6% NYI –
5 P3 1:39 Jaden Schwartz’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +6% NYI –
6 P3 0:42 Mathew Barzal’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +8% SEA –
7 SO The Islanders won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% NYI –
8 OT 0:19 Slashing on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 29% · Islanders 71%

Final margin
Islanders by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Islanders by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 34% · Islanders 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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