luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 20, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Canadiens, Nov 20, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Canadiens 8–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 18:00 left): Ethen Frank scored on a snap shot from 33 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final

Washington Capitals 8
Montreal Canadiens 4

November 20, 2025 · Centre Bell

Luck index +38 Capitals lucky · −38 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 6, Canadiens win 4.

  1. 1 WSH 7 MTL 2
  2. 2 WSH 5 MTL 1
  3. 3 WSH 4 MTL 1
  4. 4 WSH 3 MTL 1
  5. 5 WSH 3 MTL 2
  6. 6 WSH 5 MTL 4
  7. 7 WSH 1 MTL 2
  8. 8 WSH 2 MTL 3
  9. 9 WSH 2 MTL 4
  10. 10 WSH 3 MTL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Capitals win 62% of them, Canadiens 38%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+32.0%
Capitals by 211.0%
Capitals by 119.0%
Canadiens by 119.1%
Canadiens by 27.6%
Canadiens by 3+11.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 4, without the luck Capitals by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals5373.57+3.43
Canadiens4042.91+1.09

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:02 High sticking on the Canadiens (Juraj Slafkovský): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 13:33 Tripping on the Canadiens (Mike Matheson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 10:57 Hooking on the Capitals (Justin Sourdif): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 5:32 High sticking on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 4:02 High sticking on the Canadiens (Joshua Roy): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 2:49 Slashing on the Capitals (Ethen Frank): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 0:00 High sticking on the Canadiens (Mike Matheson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:00 Alex Ovechkin scored on a snap shot from 38 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% WSH –
2 P2 18:00 Ethen Frank scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 13% chance +17% WSH –
3 P2 16:22 Ethen Frank scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% WSH –
4 P2 12:07 Joe Veleno scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% MTL –
5 P2 5:34 Jakob Chychrun scored on a slap shot from 41 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% WSH –
6 P2 4:56 Nick Suzuki scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% MTL –
7 P2 2:35 Sonny Milano scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 17% chance +14% WSH –
8 P3 14:23 Mike Matheson scored on a snap shot from 49 feetShooting · 3% chance +15% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 85% · Canadiens 15%

Final margin
Capitals by 4
Luck in goals
1.9 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 62% · Canadiens 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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