luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 22, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Devils at Flyers, Nov 22, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Devils 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flyers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (P1, 11:00 left): Noah Cates scored on a snap shot from 18 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final

New Jersey Devils 3
Philadelphia Flyers 6

November 22, 2025 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +41 Flyers lucky · −41 Devils

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Devils win 4, Flyers win 6.

  1. 1 NJD 5 PHI 2
  2. 2 NJD 3 PHI 1
  3. 3 NJD 5 PHI 4
  4. 4 NJD 4 PHI 3
  5. 5 NJD 2 PHI 3
  6. 6 NJD 4 PHI 5
  7. 7 NJD 1 PHI 3
  8. 8 NJD 3 PHI 6
  9. 9 NJD 2 PHI 5
  10. 10 NJD 1 PHI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Devils win 41% of them, Flyers 59%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Devils by 3+16.1%
Devils by 27.9%
Devils by 116.6%
Flyers by 118.8%
Flyers by 210.7%
Flyers by 3+29.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 3, without the luck Flyers by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Devils6033.43−0.43
Flyers4463.63+2.37

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:42 Hooking on the Flyers (Cam York): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P1 5:16 Hooking on the Devils (Arseny Gritsyuk): 2 minutes on the power play +2% PHI
P1 1:34 Roughing on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play +1% NJD
P2 18:48 High sticking on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PHI
P3 9:22 Tripping on the Devils (Simon Nemec): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI
P3 2:00 Interference on the Devils (Luke Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Devils were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:42 Hooking on the Flyers (Cam York): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NJD –
2 P1 12:26 Timo Meier’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance +2% PHI –
3 P1 12:23 Timo Meier scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 25% chance +13% NJD –
4 P1 11:00 Noah Cates scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% PHI –
5 P1 7:54 Matvei Michkov scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 13% chance +15% PHI –
6 P1 7:45 Tyson Foerster scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 8% chance +12% PHI –
7 P1 7:28 Tyson Foerster scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 3% chance +9% PHI –
8 P2 8:18 Bobby Brink scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 4% chance +3% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Devils 31% · Flyers 69%

Final margin
Flyers by 3
Luck in goals
2.1 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Devils 41% · Flyers 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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