luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 22, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Stars at Flames, Nov 22, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Stars 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (SO): the Flames won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final (SO)

Dallas Stars 2
Calgary Flames 3

November 22, 2025 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +44 Flames lucky · −44 Stars

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stars win 4, Flames win 6.

  1. 1 DAL 4 CGY 1
  2. 2 DAL 3 CGY 1
  3. 3 DAL 5 CGY 4
  4. 4 DAL 3 CGY 2
  5. 5 DAL 2 CGY 3
  6. 6 DAL 5 CGY 6
  7. 7 DAL 6 CGY 8
  8. 8 DAL 3 CGY 5
  9. 9 DAL 0 CGY 3
  10. 10 DAL 2 CGY 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Stars win 44% of them, Flames 56%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stars by 3+15.3%
Stars by 28.4%
Stars by 120.2%
Flames by 121.0%
Flames by 29.8%
Flames by 3+25.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stars4023.25−1.25
Flames4623.26−1.26

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:49 Slashing on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P1 15:03 Interference on the Stars (Lian Bichsel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 8:37 Holding on the Stars (Colin Blackwell): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 14:08 Hooking on the Flames (Rasmus Andersson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P2 3:13 Slashing on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 0:51 Boarding on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 3 minutes on the power play +7% CGY
P3 16:08 Holding on the Stars (Radek Faksa): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CGY
P3 2:26 Delaying game puck over glass on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +10% DAL
P3 1:48 Tripping on the Flames (John Beecher): 2 minutes on the power play +10% DAL

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Stars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:19 Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 24% chance +13% CGY –
2 P3 18:10 Joel Farabee scored on a deflected shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance +13% CGY –
3 P3 13:16 Jason Robertson scored on a snap shot from 44 feetShooting · 4% chance +13% DAL –
4 P3 3:07 Roope Hintz scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 10% chance +36% DAL –
5 P3 2:26 Delaying game puck over glass on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +10% DAL –
6 P3 1:48 Tripping on the Flames (John Beecher): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +10% DAL –
7 P3 1:07 Wyatt Johnston’s wrist shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +9% CGY –
8 SO The Flames won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stars 50% · Flames 50%

Final margin
Flames by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Stars 44% · Flames 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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