2025-26 regular season · November 22, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Senators at Sharks, Nov 22, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Senators beat the Sharks 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 1:22 left): Fabian Zetterlund scored on a wrist shot from 30 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Senators. The biggest single swing (P3, 6:38 left): Tim Stützle scored on a wrist shot from 6 feet.
Final
 Ottawa Senators | 3 |
|---|---|
 San Jose Sharks | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Senators lucky · −33 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Senators win 7, Sharks win 3.
- 1 OTT 6 SJS 1
- 2 OTT 5 SJS 2
- 3 OTT 5 SJS 2
- 4 OTT 4 SJS 2
- 5 OTT 2 SJS 0
- 6 OTT 3 SJS 2
- 7 OTT 1 SJS 0
- 8 OTT 1 SJS 2
- 9 OTT 3 SJS 4
- 10 OTT 1 SJS 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Senators win 67% of them, Sharks 33%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Senators by 3+ | 32.2% |
| Senators by 2 | 13.5% |
| Senators by 1 | 21.0% |
| Sharks by 1 | 20.9% |
| Sharks by 2 | 6.0% |
| Sharks by 3+ | 6.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senators | 42 | 3 | 2.95 | +0.05 |
 Sharks | 28 | 2 | 1.72 | +0.28 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:32 | Roughing on the Sharks (Philipp Kurashev): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 11:42 | Tripping on the Senators (Jordan Spence): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P1 4:54 | Charging on the Senators (Hayden Hodgson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P1 1:19 | Slashing on the Senators (Tim Stützle): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P2 14:19 | Interference on the Sharks (Timothy Liljegren): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P2 0:13 | Tripping on the Sharks (John Klingberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% OTT |
| P3 18:35 | Interference on the Senators (Michael Amadio): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% SJS |
| P3 16:42 | Too many men on the ice on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% OTT |
| P3 12:21 | Hooking on the Senators (Lars Eller): 2 minutes on the power play | +7% SJS |
| P3 5:58 | Holding on the Sharks (Zack Ostapchuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% OTT |
When it happened
Sharks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:10 | Dylan Cozens scored on a tip from 20 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 3:54 | John Klingberg scored on a wrist shot from 44 feetShooting · 2% chance | +18% SJS | – |
| 3 | P2 12:13 | Barclay Goodrow scored on a deflected shot from 12 feetShooting · 8% chance | +19% SJS | – |
| 4 | P2 1:22 | The game turned hereFabian Zetterlund scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance | +23% OTT | – |
| 5 | P3 16:42 | Too many men on the ice on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% OTT | – |
| 6 | P3 12:21 | Hooking on the Senators (Lars Eller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +7% SJS | – |
| 7 | P3 6:38 | Tim Stützle scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 21% chance | +29% OTT | – |
| 8 | P3 0:13 | Alexander Wennberg’s wrist shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance | +6% OTT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Senators 71% · Sharks 29%
- Final margin
- Senators by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for the Sharks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senators by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Senators 67% · Sharks 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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