luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 20, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Lightning, Nov 20, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Oilers 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Oilers had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 40 points of win probability to the Oilers.

The biggest swing (OT): the Lightning won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final (OT)

Edmonton Oilers 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 2

November 20, 2025 · Benchmark International Arena

Luck index +31 Lightning lucky · −31 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 3, Lightning win 7.

  1. 1 EDM 4 TBL 1
  2. 2 EDM 3 TBL 2
  3. 3 EDM 2 TBL 1
  4. 4 EDM 2 TBL 3
  5. 5 EDM 1 TBL 2
  6. 6 EDM 4 TBL 6
  7. 7 EDM 2 TBL 5
  8. 8 EDM 2 TBL 5
  9. 9 EDM 2 TBL 6
  10. 10 EDM 0 TBL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oilers win 31% of them, Lightning 69%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+7.6%
Oilers by 25.9%
Oilers by 117.9%
Lightning by 118.1%
Lightning by 211.4%
Lightning by 3+39.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Oilers: the final margin was Lightning by 1, without the luck Lightning by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers3512.00−1.00
Lightning4313.85−2.85

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:47 Slashing on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 6:59 Instigator on the Oilers (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P1 0:00 Slashing on the Oilers (Alec Regula): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 10:32 Tripping on the Oilers (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 4:24 Interference on the Lightning (J.J. Moser): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:28 Trent Frederic scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% EDM –
2 P1 6:24 Brayden Point’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +5% EDM –
3 P3 19:33 Anthony Cirelli’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +6% EDM –
4 P3 19:32 Anthony Cirelli’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 33% chance +9% EDM –
5 P3 13:29 Gage Goncalves missed the net with a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 20% chance +6% EDM –
6 P3 4:45 Jake Guentzel’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +5% EDM –
7 P3 2:32 Nick Paul scored on a slap shot from 17 feetShooting · 15% chance +36% TBL –
8 OT The Lightning won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 20% · Lightning 80%

Final margin
Lightning by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Oilers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 31% · Lightning 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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