2025-26 regular season · November 5, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blue Jackets at Flames, Nov 5, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Flames beat the Blue Jackets 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Flames.
The biggest swing (P1, 19:04 left): Morgan Frost scored on a tip from 10 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Flames.
Final
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 1 |
|---|---|
 Calgary Flames | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Flames lucky · −58 Blue Jackets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 6, Flames win 4.
- 1 CBJ 5 CGY 1
- 2 CBJ 4 CGY 1
- 3 CBJ 5 CGY 2
- 4 CBJ 3 CGY 1
- 5 CBJ 2 CGY 1
- 6 CBJ 5 CGY 4
- 7 CBJ 2 CGY 3
- 8 CBJ 2 CGY 3
- 9 CBJ 2 CGY 4
- 10 CBJ 2 CGY 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Blue Jackets win 58% of them, Flames 42%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 23.3% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 12.1% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 22.1% |
| Flames by 1 | 22.5% |
| Flames by 2 | 8.6% |
| Flames by 3+ | 11.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 61 | 1 | 3.38 | −2.38 |
 Flames | 33 | 4 | 1.84 | +2.16 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:56 | Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Adam Fantilli): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CGY |
| P3 19:03 | Hooking on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% CBJ |
| P3 11:24 | Slashing on the Blue Jackets (Dmitri Voronkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% CGY |
When it happened
Flames’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:04 | Morgan Frost scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance | +14% CGY | – |
| 2 | P1 18:28 | Blake Coleman scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 3% chance | +12% CGY | – |
| 3 | P1 14:56 | Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Adam Fantilli): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% CGY | – |
| 4 | P1 13:03 | Kirill Marchenko scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 10% chance | +12% CBJ | – |
| 5 | P1 9:05 | Kent Johnson’s wrist shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +2% CGY | – |
| 6 | P2 15:45 | Adam Fantilli’s wrist shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +3% CGY | – |
| 7 | P2 12:13 | Nazem Kadri scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% CGY | – |
| 8 | P2 11:36 | Adam Klapka scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 7% chance | +7% CGY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blue Jackets 51% · Flames 49%
- Final margin
- Flames by 4
- Luck in goals
- 4.0 for the Flames
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Blue Jackets 58% · Flames 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 5, 2025-26
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