luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 3, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blackhawks at Kraken, Nov 3, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Blackhawks 3–1, but the replays lean toward the Blackhawks: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (P2, 17:03 left): Jamie Oleksiak scored on a snap shot from 65 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Chicago Blackhawks 1
Seattle Kraken 3

November 3, 2025 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +61 Kraken very lucky · −61 Blackhawks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blackhawks win 6, Kraken win 4.

  1. 1 CHI 6 SEA 1
  2. 2 CHI 3 SEA 0
  3. 3 CHI 5 SEA 2
  4. 4 CHI 3 SEA 1
  5. 5 CHI 2 SEA 1
  6. 6 CHI 3 SEA 2
  7. 7 CHI 1 SEA 2
  8. 8 CHI 4 SEA 5
  9. 9 CHI 1 SEA 3
  10. 10 CHI 0 SEA 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Blackhawks win 61% of them, Kraken 39%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blackhawks by 3+29.3%
Blackhawks by 211.6%
Blackhawks by 120.4%
Kraken by 121.3%
Kraken by 27.1%
Kraken by 3+10.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 2, without the luck Kraken by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blackhawks4513.32−2.32
Kraken3232.01+0.99

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:45 High sticking on the Kraken (Kaapo Kakko): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 12:32 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 11:45 Hooking on the Kraken (Matty Beniers): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CHI
P2 4:28 Tripping on the Kraken (Jordan Eberle): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CHI
P3 18:01 Too many men on the ice on the Blackhawks (CHI): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Blackhawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:12 Wyatt Kaiser’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +4% SEA –
2 P1 9:45 High sticking on the Kraken (Kaapo Kakko): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CHI –
3 P2 17:03 Jamie Oleksiak scored on a snap shot from 65 feetShooting · 1% chance +19% SEA –
4 P2 12:32 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SEA –
5 P2 12:24 Matty Beniers scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 16% chance +12% SEA –
6 P2 9:50 Nick Foligno’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +4% SEA –
7 P3 8:27 Andre Burakovsky scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance +11% CHI –
8 P3 3:55 Jordan Eberle scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 8% chance +8% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blackhawks 29% · Kraken 71%

Final margin
Kraken by 2
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Blackhawks 61% · Kraken 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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