2025-26 regular season · November 6, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Ducks at Stars, Nov 6, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Stars 7–5, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 48 points of win probability to the Ducks.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 5:53 left): Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 24 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Ducks. The biggest single swing (P2, 2:55 left): Olen Zellweger scored on a snap shot from 15 feet.
Final
 Anaheim Ducks | 7 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Stars | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Ducks lucky · −54 Stars
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ducks win 5, Stars win 5.
- 1 ANA 6 DAL 2
- 2 ANA 5 DAL 2
- 3 ANA 4 DAL 2
- 4 ANA 2 DAL 1
- 5 ANA 3 DAL 2
- 6 ANA 4 DAL 5
- 7 ANA 2 DAL 3
- 8 ANA 2 DAL 4
- 9 ANA 1 DAL 4
- 10 ANA 1 DAL 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.3 replays ended
Ducks win 46% of them, Stars 54%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ducks by 3+ | 18.3% |
| Ducks by 2 | 9.2% |
| Ducks by 1 | 18.9% |
| Stars by 1 | 21.7% |
| Stars by 2 | 10.7% |
| Stars by 3+ | 21.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ducks | 39 | 6 | 2.83 | +3.17 |
 Stars | 32 | 5 | 3.06 | +1.94 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:20 | Hooking on the Ducks (Nikita Nesterenko): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P1 7:00 | Tripping on the Stars (Radek Faksa): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P1 3:52 | Hooking on the Ducks (Ian Moore): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P1 0:36 | Tripping on the Stars (Sam Steel): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% ANA |
| P2 4:44 | Tripping on the Stars (Alexander Petrovic): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% ANA |
| P3 18:16 | Hooking on the Ducks (Jacob Trouba): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DAL |
| P3 17:07 | Elbowing on the Ducks (Mason McTavish): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DAL |
| P3 15:28 | Slashing on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% ANA |
| P3 11:55 | High sticking on the Ducks (Ian Moore): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DAL |
| P3 0:56 | Hooking on the Stars (Miro Heiskanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% ANA |
When it happened
Stars’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:11 | Wyatt Johnston scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 22% chance | +13% DAL | – |
| 2 | P2 18:44 | Chris Kreider scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% ANA | – |
| 3 | P2 17:12 | Ian Moore scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 19% chance | +15% ANA | – |
| 4 | P2 11:41 | Tyler Seguin scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 18% chance | +17% DAL | – |
| 5 | P2 5:53 | The game turned hereCutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 10% chance | +20% ANA | – |
| 6 | P2 2:55 | Olen Zellweger scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 15% chance | +21% ANA | – |
| 7 | P3 19:44 | Chris Kreider scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 18:10 | Mikko Rantanen scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 25% chance | +12% DAL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ducks 71% · Stars 29%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Ducks 46% · Stars 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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