2025-26 regular season · November 8, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Stars at Predators, Nov 8, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Stars beat the Predators 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Predators had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Predators.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 10:27 left): Adam Erne scored on a wrist shot from 16 feet, worth 27 points of win probability to the Stars. The biggest single swing (P3, 9:40 left): Sam Steel scored on a wrist shot from 18 feet.
Final
 Dallas Stars | 5 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Stars lucky · −34 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stars win 7, Predators win 3.
- 1 DAL 6 NSH 1
- 2 DAL 3 NSH 0
- 3 DAL 4 NSH 1
- 4 DAL 2 NSH 0
- 5 DAL 2 NSH 0
- 6 DAL 2 NSH 1
- 7 DAL 2 NSH 1
- 8 DAL 3 NSH 4
- 9 DAL 0 NSH 1
- 10 DAL 1 NSH 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Stars win 66% of them, Predators 34%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stars by 3+ | 31.8% |
| Stars by 2 | 12.8% |
| Stars by 1 | 21.1% |
| Predators by 1 | 21.2% |
| Predators by 2 | 6.4% |
| Predators by 3+ | 6.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stars | 34 | 5 | 2.67 | +2.33 |
 Predators | 31 | 4 | 1.65 | +2.35 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 16:53 | Tripping on the Predators (Brady Skjei): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P1 6:26 | High sticking on the Predators (Luke Evangelista): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P1 0:28 | Interference goalkeeper on the Predators (Ozzy Wiesblatt): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P2 19:03 | Interference on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P2 19:00 | Tripping on the Stars (Wyatt Johnston): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 6:00 | Tripping on the Predators (Ozzy Wiesblatt): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P3 15:36 | Boarding on the Stars (Lian Bichsel): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% NSH |
| P3 9:12 | Hooking on the Stars (Ilya Lyubushkin): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P3 3:37 | Tripping on the Stars (Colin Blackwell): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% NSH |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 2:14 | Luke Evangelista scored on a snap shot from 51 feetShooting · 2% chance | +18% NSH | – |
| 2 | P2 19:47 | Roope Hintz scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 14% chance | +16% DAL | – |
| 3 | P2 15:17 | Nicolas Hague scored on a wrist shot from 58 feetShooting · 1% chance | +20% NSH | – |
| 4 | P2 14:50 | Filip Forsberg scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 12% chance | +17% NSH | – |
| 5 | P3 17:40 | Justin Hryckowian scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chance | +22% DAL | – |
| 6 | P3 14:49 | Steven Stamkos scored on a slap shot from 32 feetShooting · 10% chance | +25% NSH | – |
| 7 | P3 10:27 | The game turned hereAdam Erne scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 14% chance | +27% DAL | – |
| 8 | P3 9:40 | Sam Steel scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 9% chance | +30% DAL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stars 70% · Predators 30%
- Final margin
- Stars by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stars by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Stars 66% · Predators 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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