luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 6, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Penguins, Nov 6, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Capitals 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Penguins win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Penguins.

The biggest swing (P3, 8:44 left): Bryan Rust scored on a wrist shot from 11 feet, worth 28 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final

Washington Capitals 3
Pittsburgh Penguins 5

November 6, 2025 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +40 Penguins lucky · −40 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 4, Penguins win 6.

  1. 1 WSH 4 PIT 1
  2. 2 WSH 4 PIT 2
  3. 3 WSH 5 PIT 4
  4. 4 WSH 5 PIT 4
  5. 5 WSH 3 PIT 4
  6. 6 WSH 5 PIT 6
  7. 7 WSH 1 PIT 3
  8. 8 WSH 1 PIT 4
  9. 9 WSH 3 PIT 6
  10. 10 WSH 2 PIT 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Capitals win 40% of them, Penguins 60%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+12.6%
Capitals by 28.4%
Capitals by 119.5%
Penguins by 119.9%
Penguins by 211.1%
Penguins by 3+28.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Penguins: the final margin was Penguins by 2, without the luck Penguins by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals4232.81+0.19
Penguins5043.40+0.60

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:55 Hooking on the Capitals (Connor McMichael): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 9:27 Hooking on the Capitals (Sonny Milano): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PIT
P1 6:06 Slashing on the Penguins (Blake Lizotte): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WSH
P1 3:53 Interference on the Capitals (Trevor van Riemsdyk): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PIT
P2 17:37 High sticking on the Capitals (Trevor van Riemsdyk): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PIT
P3 15:17 Interference on the Penguins (Connor Clifton): 2 minutes on the power play +7% WSH
P3 11:21 Delaying game puck over glass on the Penguins (Ben Kindel): 2 minutes on the power play +7% WSH
P3 10:36 Cross checking on the Capitals (Dylan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play +7% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:38 Sidney Crosby scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% PIT –
2 P1 8:28 Sidney Crosby scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 27% chance +10% PIT –
3 P2 10:19 Dylan Strome scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 12% chance +7% WSH –
4 P2 5:05 Rasmus Sandin scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 7% chance +14% WSH –
5 P2 0:05 Tom Wilson scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance +21% WSH –
6 P3 11:21 Delaying game puck over glass on the Penguins (Ben Kindel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% WSH –
7 P3 10:36 Cross checking on the Capitals (Dylan Strome): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% PIT –
8 P3 8:44 Bryan Rust scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 14% chance +28% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 27% · Penguins 73%

Final margin
Penguins by 2
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Penguins
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 40% · Penguins 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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