luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 4, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Stars, Nov 4, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Stars beat the Oilers 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (SO): the Stars won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Stars.

Final (SO)

Edmonton Oilers 3
Dallas Stars 4

November 4, 2025 · American Airlines Center

Luck index +39 Stars lucky · −39 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 4, Stars win 6.

  1. 1 EDM 5 DAL 2
  2. 2 EDM 4 DAL 1
  3. 3 EDM 3 DAL 2
  4. 4 EDM 2 DAL 1
  5. 5 EDM 2 DAL 3
  6. 6 EDM 2 DAL 3
  7. 7 EDM 2 DAL 4
  8. 8 EDM 2 DAL 5
  9. 9 EDM 1 DAL 5
  10. 10 EDM 0 DAL 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oilers win 39% of them, Stars 61%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+12.5%
Oilers by 27.6%
Oilers by 118.4%
Stars by 118.6%
Stars by 211.5%
Stars by 3+31.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Stars: the final margin was Stars by 1, without the luck Stars by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers3932.56+0.44
Stars3833.72−0.72

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:08 Cross checking on the Stars (Esa Lindell): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 12:11 Tripping on the Oilers (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DAL
P1 10:27 Too many men on the ice on the Stars (DAL): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P1 9:12 Interference goalkeeper on the Oilers (Jack Roslovic): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DAL
P2 16:56 Boarding on the Stars (Lian Bichsel): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P2 11:27 Cross checking on the Oilers (Leon Draisaitl): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DAL
P2 4:21 Cross checking on the Oilers (Alec Regula): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DAL

When it happened

Stars’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Stars were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:20 Vasily Podkolzin scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% EDM –
2 P1 12:53 Leon Draisaitl scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% EDM –
3 P2 10:50 Mikko Rantanen scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 24% chance +12% DAL –
4 P3 16:37 Jason Robertson’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +6% EDM –
5 P3 12:09 Connor McDavid scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% EDM –
6 P3 11:23 Mikko Rantanen scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 21% chance +12% DAL –
7 P3 7:40 Miro Heiskanen scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance +30% DAL –
8 SO The Stars won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% DAL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 33% · Stars 67%

Final margin
Stars by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Stars
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 39% · Stars 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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