luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 4, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Ducks, Nov 4, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Panthers 7–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

The biggest swing (P2, 4:24 left): Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 31 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final

Florida Panthers 3
Anaheim Ducks 7

November 4, 2025 · Honda Center

Luck index +35 Ducks lucky · −35 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Ducks win 7.

  1. 1 FLA 5 ANA 2
  2. 2 FLA 5 ANA 4
  3. 3 FLA 5 ANA 4
  4. 4 FLA 3 ANA 4
  5. 5 FLA 2 ANA 3
  6. 6 FLA 3 ANA 5
  7. 7 FLA 1 ANA 4
  8. 8 FLA 0 ANA 3
  9. 9 FLA 2 ANA 6
  10. 10 FLA 2 ANA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Panthers win 35% of them, Ducks 65%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+10.6%
Panthers by 26.7%
Panthers by 117.6%
Ducks by 119.6%
Ducks by 212.4%
Ducks by 3+33.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 4, without the luck Ducks by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers3932.33+0.67
Ducks4773.29+3.71

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:42 Tripping on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +3% FLA
P1 11:58 Broken stick on the Panthers (Brad Marchand): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P1 7:37 High sticking on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 4:54 Slashing on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 10:52 Holding on the Ducks (Alex Killorn): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P2 5:46 Slashing on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P2 2:02 Delaying game puck over glass on the Ducks (Ian Moore): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P3 19:18 Roughing on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P3 19:09 Interference on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 5 minutes on the power play +12% FLA
P3 15:44 Hooking on the Panthers (Brad Marchand): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P3 13:36 High sticking on the Ducks (Mason McTavish): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P3 2:18 Interference on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play 0% ANA

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:51 Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% ANA –
2 P1 9:46 Brad Marchand scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% FLA –
3 P1 4:43 Cutter Gauthier scored on a slap shot from 28 feetShooting · 14% chance +15% ANA –
4 P2 14:39 Evan Rodrigues scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 14% chance +17% FLA –
5 P2 9:23 Eetu Luostarinen scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 18% chance +18% FLA –
6 P2 4:24 Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance +22% ANA –
7 P2 2:41 Nikita Nesterenko scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance +22% ANA –
8 P3 19:09 Interference on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 5 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% FLA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 19% · Ducks 81%

Final margin
Ducks by 4
Luck in goals
2.3 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Ducks by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 35% · Ducks 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 5 2025-26 games · Panthers · Ducks

More from week 5, 2025-26

Every game of week 5, 2025-26