Blues unlucky 4 
Red Wings lucky 6 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 26% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Oct 20, 2025 – Oct 26, 2025
NHL week 3: who deserved to win
10 of 55 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Red Wings beat the Blues 6–4 in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 55 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Blues unlucky 4 Red Wings lucky 6 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 26% of replays 
Kings unlucky 4 
Predators lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Predators win 27% of replays 
Penguins lucky 5 
Panthers unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Penguins win 28% of replays 
Hurricanes lucky 5 
Avalanche unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Hurricanes win 28% of replays Avalanche unlucky 2 
Bruins lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 31% of replays 
Sabres unlucky 2 
Canadiens lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 35% of replays Kings lucky 3 
Stars unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Kings win 38% of replays Red Wings unlucky 2 
Islanders lucky 7 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 38% of replays 
Blue Jackets lucky 5 Stars unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Blue Jackets win 38% of replays Avalanche unlucky 3 
Devils lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Devils win 40% of replays Kings 2 Blues 1 Coin flip · Kings win 41% of replays 
Mammoth 3 
Jets 2 Coin flip · Mammoth win 43% of replays Canadiens 5 
Oilers 6 Coin flip · Oilers win 43% of replays 
Ducks 7 Bruins 5 Coin flip · Ducks win 44% of replays 
Kraken 3 Jets 0 Coin flip · Kraken win 44% of replays Mammoth 7 Blues 4 Coin flip · Mammoth win 45% of replays 
Sharks 6 
Rangers 5 Coin flip · Sharks win 45% of replays Sharks 6 
Wild 5 Coin flip · Sharks win 46% of replays 
Blackhawks 3 
Lightning 2 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 47% of replays Wild 1 Devils 4 Coin flip · Devils win 47% of replays Sabres 3 
Maple Leafs 4 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 48% of replays 
Canucks 1 Predators 2 Coin flip · Predators win 48% of replays Canadiens 4 Canucks 3 Coin flip · Canadiens win 48% of replays 
Flames 3 Jets 5 Coin flip · Jets win 49% of replays Kings 3 Blackhawks 1 Coin flip · Kings win 49% of replays Sharks 3 Islanders 4 Coin flip · Islanders win 49% of replays Kraken 2 
Flyers 5 Coin flip · Flyers win 49% of replays Oilers 3 
Senators 2 Coin flip · Oilers win 50% of replays Oilers 3 Canucks 4 Coin flip · Canucks win 50% of replays Oilers 2 Kraken 3 Coin flip · Kraken win 51% of replays Avalanche 3 Mammoth 4 Coin flip · Mammoth win 51% of replays Maple Leafs 3 Sabres 5 Coin flip · Sabres win 51% of replays Canadiens 2 Flames 1 Coin flip · Canadiens win 51% of replays Flyers 1 Senators 2 Coin flip · Senators win 51% of replays Wild 3 Rangers 1 Coin flip · Wild win 51% of replays Rangers 1 Flames 5 Coin flip · Flames win 52% of replays 
Capitals 5 Blue Jackets 1 Coin flip · Capitals win 52% of replays Islanders 3 Flyers 4 Coin flip · Flyers win 54% of replays Hurricanes 1 
Golden Knights 4 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 57% of replays Blue Jackets 5 Penguins 4 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 57% of replays Devils 5 Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Devils win 58% of replays Panthers 4 Bruins 3 Coin flip · Panthers win 58% of replays Mammoth 6 Wild 2 Replays agree · Mammoth win 61% of replays Stars 3 Predators 2 Replays agree · Stars win 64% of replays Hurricanes 2 Stars 3 Replays agree · Stars win 64% of replays Jets 2 Flames 1 Replays agree · Jets win 64% of replays Canucks 1 Penguins 5 Replays agree · Penguins win 64% of replays Golden Knights 1 Lightning 2 Replays agree · Lightning win 64% of replays Sharks 1 Devils 3 Replays agree · Devils win 65% of replays Red Wings 2 Sabres 4 Replays agree · Sabres win 70% of replays Kraken 1 Capitals 4 Replays agree · Capitals win 70% of replays Golden Knights 0 Panthers 3 Replays agree · Panthers win 71% of replays Ducks 3 Lightning 4 Replays agree · Lightning win 73% of replays Senators 7 Capitals 1 Replays agree · Senators win 74% of replays Ducks 5 Predators 2 Replays agree · Ducks win 75% of replays Week 3 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Wings | W 6–4 vs Blues Oct 25, 2025 | 26% | +74 |
| 2 | Predators | W 5–4 SO vs Kings Oct 25, 2025 | 27% | +73 |
| 3 | Penguins | W 5–3 @ Panthers Oct 23, 2025 | 28% | +72 |
| 4 | Hurricanes | W 5–4 SO @ Avalanche Oct 23, 2025 | 28% | +72 |
| 5 | Bruins | W 3–2 vs Avalanche Oct 25, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 6 | Canadiens | W 4–2 vs Sabres Oct 20, 2025 | 35% | +65 |
| 7 | Kings | W 3–2 OT @ Stars Oct 23, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 8 | Islanders | W 7–2 vs Red Wings Oct 23, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 9 | Blue Jackets | W 5–1 @ Stars Oct 21, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 10 | Devils | W 4–3 OT vs Avalanche Oct 26, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 11 | Kings | W 2–1 OT @ Blues Oct 21, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 12 | Mammoth | W 3–2 @ Jets Oct 26, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 13 | Oilers | W 6–5 vs Canadiens Oct 23, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 14 | Ducks | W 7–5 @ Bruins Oct 23, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 15 | Kraken | W 3–0 @ Jets Oct 23, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 16 | Mammoth | W 7–4 @ Blues Oct 23, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 17 | Sharks | W 6–5 OT @ Rangers Oct 23, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 18 | Sharks | W 6–5 OT @ Wild Oct 26, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 19 | Blackhawks | W 3–2 @ Lightning Oct 23, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 20 | Devils | W 4–1 vs Wild Oct 22, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 21 | Maple Leafs | W 4–3 OT vs Sabres Oct 25, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 22 | Predators | W 2–1 vs Canucks Oct 23, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 23 | Canadiens | W 4–3 @ Canucks Oct 25, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 24 | Jets | W 5–3 vs Flames Oct 24, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 25 | Kings | W 3–1 @ Blackhawks Oct 26, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 26 | Islanders | W 4–3 vs Sharks Oct 21, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 27 | Flyers | W 5–2 vs Kraken Oct 20, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 28 | Oilers | W 3–2 OT @ Senators Oct 21, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 29 | Canucks | W 4–3 OT vs Oilers Oct 26, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 30 | Kraken | W 3–2 vs Oilers Oct 25, 2025 | 51% | +50 |
| 31 | Mammoth | W 4–3 OT vs Avalanche Oct 21, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 32 | Sabres | W 5–3 vs Maple Leafs Oct 24, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 33 | Canadiens | W 2–1 OT @ Flames Oct 22, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 34 | Senators | W 2–1 vs Flyers Oct 23, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 35 | Wild | W 3–1 @ Rangers Oct 20, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 36 | Flames | W 5–1 vs Rangers Oct 26, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 37 | Capitals | W 5–1 @ Blue Jackets Oct 24, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 38 | Flyers | W 4–3 SO vs Islanders Oct 25, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 39 | Golden Knights | W 4–1 vs Hurricanes Oct 20, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 40 | Blue Jackets | W 5–4 SO @ Penguins Oct 25, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 41 | Devils | W 5–2 @ Maple Leafs Oct 21, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 42 | Panthers | W 4–3 @ Bruins Oct 21, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 43 | Mammoth | W 6–2 @ Wild Oct 25, 2025 | 61% | +40 |
| 44 | Stars | W 3–2 @ Predators Oct 26, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 45 | Stars | W 3–2 vs Hurricanes Oct 25, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 46 | Jets | W 2–1 @ Flames Oct 20, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 47 | Penguins | W 5–1 vs Canucks Oct 21, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 48 | Lightning | W 2–1 OT vs Golden Knights Oct 26, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 49 | Devils | W 3–1 vs Sharks Oct 24, 2025 | 65% | +35 |
| 50 | Sabres | W 4–2 vs Red Wings Oct 22, 2025 | 70% | +30 |
| 51 | Capitals | W 4–1 vs Kraken Oct 21, 2025 | 70% | +30 |
| 52 | Panthers | W 3–0 vs Golden Knights Oct 25, 2025 | 71% | +29 |
| 53 | Lightning | W 4–3 vs Ducks Oct 25, 2025 | 73% | +27 |
| 54 | Senators | W 7–1 @ Capitals Oct 25, 2025 | 74% | +26 |
| 55 | Ducks | W 5–2 @ Predators Oct 21, 2025 | 75% | +25 |
| 56 | Predators | L 2–5 vs Ducks Oct 21, 2025 | 25% | −25 |
| 57 | Capitals | L 1–7 vs Senators Oct 25, 2025 | 26% | −26 |
| 58 | Ducks | L 3–4 @ Lightning Oct 25, 2025 | 27% | −27 |
| 59 | Golden Knights | L 0–3 @ Panthers Oct 25, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 60 | Kraken | L 1–4 @ Capitals Oct 21, 2025 | 30% | −30 |
| 61 | Red Wings | L 2–4 @ Sabres Oct 22, 2025 | 30% | −30 |
| 62 | Sharks | L 1–3 @ Devils Oct 24, 2025 | 35% | −35 |
| 63 | Golden Knights | L 1–2 OT @ Lightning Oct 26, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 64 | Canucks | L 1–5 @ Penguins Oct 21, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 65 | Flames | L 1–2 vs Jets Oct 20, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 66 | Hurricanes | L 2–3 @ Stars Oct 25, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 67 | Predators | L 2–3 vs Stars Oct 26, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 68 | Wild | L 2–6 vs Mammoth Oct 25, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 69 | Bruins | L 3–4 vs Panthers Oct 21, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 70 | Maple Leafs | L 2–5 vs Devils Oct 21, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 71 | Penguins | L 4–5 SO vs Blue Jackets Oct 25, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 72 | Hurricanes | L 1–4 @ Golden Knights Oct 20, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 73 | Islanders | L 3–4 SO @ Flyers Oct 25, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 74 | Blue Jackets | L 1–5 vs Capitals Oct 24, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 75 | Rangers | L 1–5 @ Flames Oct 26, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 76 | Rangers | L 1–3 vs Wild Oct 20, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 77 | Flyers | L 1–2 @ Senators Oct 23, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 78 | Flames | L 1–2 OT vs Canadiens Oct 22, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 79 | Maple Leafs | L 3–5 @ Sabres Oct 24, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 80 | Avalanche | L 3–4 OT @ Mammoth Oct 21, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 81 | Oilers | L 2–3 @ Kraken Oct 25, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 82 | Oilers | L 3–4 OT @ Canucks Oct 26, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 83 | Senators | L 2–3 OT vs Oilers Oct 21, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 84 | Kraken | L 2–5 @ Flyers Oct 20, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 85 | Sharks | L 3–4 @ Islanders Oct 21, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 86 | Flames | L 3–5 @ Jets Oct 24, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 87 | Blackhawks | L 1–3 vs Kings Oct 26, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 88 | Canucks | L 3–4 vs Canadiens Oct 25, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 89 | Canucks | L 1–2 @ Predators Oct 23, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 90 | Sabres | L 3–4 OT @ Maple Leafs Oct 25, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 91 | Wild | L 1–4 @ Devils Oct 22, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 92 | Lightning | L 2–3 vs Blackhawks Oct 23, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 93 | Wild | L 5–6 OT vs Sharks Oct 26, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 94 | Rangers | L 5–6 OT vs Sharks Oct 23, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 95 | Blues | L 4–7 vs Mammoth Oct 23, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 96 | Jets | L 0–3 vs Kraken Oct 23, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 97 | Bruins | L 5–7 vs Ducks Oct 23, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 98 | Canadiens | L 5–6 @ Oilers Oct 23, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 99 | Jets | L 2–3 vs Mammoth Oct 26, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 100 | Blues | L 1–2 OT vs Kings Oct 21, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 101 | Avalanche | L 3–4 OT @ Devils Oct 26, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 102 | Stars | L 1–5 vs Blue Jackets Oct 21, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 103 | Red Wings | L 2–7 @ Islanders Oct 23, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 104 | Stars | L 2–3 OT vs Kings Oct 23, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 105 | Sabres | L 2–4 @ Canadiens Oct 20, 2025 | 65% | −65 |
| 106 | Avalanche | L 2–3 @ Bruins Oct 25, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 107 | Panthers | L 3–5 vs Penguins Oct 23, 2025 | 72% | −72 |
| 108 | Avalanche | L 4–5 SO vs Hurricanes Oct 23, 2025 | 72% | −72 |
| 109 | Kings | L 4–5 SO @ Predators Oct 25, 2025 | 73% | −73 |
| 110 | Blues | L 4–6 @ Red Wings Oct 25, 2025 | 74% | −74 |