2025-26 regular season · October 23, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flyers at Senators, Oct 23, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Senators beat the Flyers 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Senators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 28 points of win probability to the Senators.
The biggest swing (P2, 16:55 left): Olle Lycksell scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Senators.
Final
 Philadelphia Flyers | 1 |
|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Senators lucky · −49 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flyers win 5, Senators win 5.
- 1 PHI 3 OTT 0
- 2 PHI 4 OTT 2
- 3 PHI 2 OTT 1
- 4 PHI 3 OTT 2
- 5 PHI 3 OTT 2
- 6 PHI 2 OTT 3
- 7 PHI 0 OTT 1
- 8 PHI 0 OTT 1
- 9 PHI 1 OTT 3
- 10 PHI 0 OTT 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Flyers win 49% of them, Senators 51%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flyers by 3+ | 15.3% |
| Flyers by 2 | 10.7% |
| Flyers by 1 | 23.0% |
| Senators by 1 | 25.0% |
| Senators by 2 | 11.0% |
| Senators by 3+ | 15.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flyers | 34 | 1 | 2.30 | −1.30 |
 Senators | 40 | 2 | 2.03 | −0.03 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:43 | Hooking on the Flyers (Bobby Brink): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 8:42 | Interference goalkeeper on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P1 4:56 | Tripping on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 16:21 | Hooking on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 1:23 | Tripping on the Senators (Nick Jensen): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% PHI |
| P3 17:51 | Interference on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P3 15:17 | Interference on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% PHI |
| P3 13:30 | Tripping on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
When it happened
Senators’ chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:31 | Tyson Foerster scored on a wrist shot from 44 feetShooting · 3% chance | +15% PHI | – |
| 2 | P1 12:03 | Michael Amadio scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 8% chance | +16% OTT | – |
| 3 | P1 2:28 | Trevor Zegras’s snap shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 36% chance | +7% OTT | – |
| 4 | P2 16:55 | Olle Lycksell scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 13% chance | +17% OTT | – |
| 5 | P2 1:23 | Tripping on the Senators (Nick Jensen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% PHI | – |
| 6 | P3 17:51 | Interference on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% OTT | – |
| 7 | P3 15:17 | Interference on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% PHI | – |
| 8 | P3 13:30 | Tripping on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% OTT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flyers 55% · Senators 45%
- Final margin
- Senators by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Senators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senators by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Flyers 49% · Senators 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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