luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 25, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blues at Red Wings, Oct 25, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Red Wings beat the Blues 6–4, but the replays lean toward the Blues: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 41 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

The biggest swing (P3, 9:12 left): Simon Edvinsson scored on a wrist shot from 69 feet, worth 32 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

Final

St. Louis Blues 4
Detroit Red Wings 6

October 25, 2025 · Little Caesars Arena

Luck index +74 Red Wings very lucky · −74 Blues

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blues win 7, Red Wings win 3.

  1. 1 STL 7 DET 0
  2. 2 STL 6 DET 1
  3. 3 STL 6 DET 2
  4. 4 STL 5 DET 2
  5. 5 STL 5 DET 2
  6. 6 STL 3 DET 2
  7. 7 STL 6 DET 5
  8. 8 STL 3 DET 4
  9. 9 STL 2 DET 3
  10. 10 STL 2 DET 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Blues win 74% of them, Red Wings 26%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blues by 3+48.0%
Blues by 210.3%
Blues by 116.1%
Red Wings by 115.1%
Red Wings by 25.1%
Red Wings by 3+5.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 goals to the Red Wings: the final margin was Red Wings by 2, without the luck Blues by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blues4444.15−0.15
Red Wings3752.24+2.76

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:08 Tripping on the Red Wings (James van Riemsdyk): 2 minutes on the power play +4% STL
P1 4:28 Slashing on the Blues (Cam Fowler): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DET
P2 19:33 Holding on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% STL
P2 13:35 Cross checking on the Blues (Matthew Kessel): 2 minutes on the power play +1% DET
P2 11:27 Holding on the Red Wings (J.T. Compher): 2 minutes on the power play +2% STL
P3 14:52 High sticking on the Blues (Nick Bjugstad): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DET
P3 3:53 Delaying game puck over glass on the Red Wings (Marco Kasper): 2 minutes on the power play +6% STL

When it happened

Red Wings’ chance of winning

As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Red Wings were ahead in it, below while the Blues were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:17 Jordan Kyrou scored on a snap shot from 40 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% STL –
2 P1 7:06 Jake Neighbours scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% STL –
3 P2 19:01 Pavel Buchnevich scored on a tip from 23 feetShooting · 9% chance +9% STL –
4 P2 0:59 J.T. Compher scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% DET –
5 P3 9:59 Alex DeBrincat scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 8% chance +30% DET –
6 P3 9:12 Simon Edvinsson scored on a wrist shot from 69 feetShooting · 1% chance +32% DET –
7 P3 4:43 Jordan Kyrou’s snap shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +7% DET –
8 P3 4:42 Jordan Kyrou’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +10% DET –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blues 63% · Red Wings 37%

Final margin
Red Wings by 2
Luck in goals
2.7 for the Red Wings
Luck-adjusted margin
Blues by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Blues 74% · Red Wings 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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