luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 25, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kings at Predators, Oct 25, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Kings 5–4, but the replays lean toward the Kings: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Predators.

The biggest swing (SO): the Predators won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final (SO)

Los Angeles Kings 4
Nashville Predators 5

October 25, 2025 · Bridgestone Arena

Luck index +73 Predators very lucky · −73 Kings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kings win 7, Predators win 3.

  1. 1 LAK 6 NSH 0
  2. 2 LAK 4 NSH 0
  3. 3 LAK 5 NSH 2
  4. 4 LAK 3 NSH 0
  5. 5 LAK 7 NSH 5
  6. 6 LAK 3 NSH 2
  7. 7 LAK 3 NSH 2
  8. 8 LAK 3 NSH 4
  9. 9 LAK 4 NSH 5
  10. 10 LAK 3 NSH 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Kings win 73% of them, Predators 27%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kings by 3+43.1%
Kings by 212.3%
Kings by 117.4%
Predators by 116.9%
Predators by 25.4%
Predators by 3+5.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 1, without the luck Kings by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kings5743.72+0.28
Predators2241.72+2.28

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 3:16 High sticking on the Kings (Mikey Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 8:25 Slashing on the Predators (Justin Barron): 2 minutes on the power play +5% LAK
P3 3:31 Hooking on the Predators (Jonathan Marchessault): 2 minutes on the power play +9% LAK
P3 1:23 Slashing on the Predators (Cole Smith): 2 minutes on the power play +10% LAK
OT 2:08 Holding on the Kings (Trevor Moore): 2 minutes on the power play +12% NSH

When it happened

Predators’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Predators were ahead in it, below while the Kings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:33 Adrian Kempe scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% LAK –
2 P2 19:24 Filip Forsberg scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 13% chance +16% NSH –
3 P2 18:25 Joel Armia scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 2% chance +18% LAK –
4 P2 14:36 Corey Perry scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 14% chance +17% LAK –
5 P2 12:48 Cole Smith scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 13% chance +18% NSH –
6 P3 10:10 Trevor Moore scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 11% chance +29% LAK –
7 P3 5:16 Ryan O'Reilly scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 8% chance +35% NSH –
8 SO The Predators won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kings 82% · Predators 18%

Final margin
Predators by 1
Luck in goals
2.5 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Kings by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Kings 73% · Predators 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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