2025-26 regular season · October 23, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kraken at Jets, Oct 23, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Kraken beat the Jets 3–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kraken win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 30 points of win probability to the Kraken.
The biggest swing (P2, 17:32 left): Jaden Schwartz scored on a wrist shot from 6 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Kraken.
Final
 Seattle Kraken | 3 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Kraken lucky · −56 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kraken win 4, Jets win 6.
- 1 SEA 5 WPG 2
- 2 SEA 3 WPG 1
- 3 SEA 1 WPG 0
- 4 SEA 4 WPG 3
- 5 SEA 1 WPG 2
- 6 SEA 2 WPG 3
- 7 SEA 2 WPG 3
- 8 SEA 2 WPG 4
- 9 SEA 0 WPG 3
- 10 SEA 0 WPG 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kraken win 44% of them, Jets 56%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kraken by 3+ | 9.9% |
| Kraken by 2 | 9.5% |
| Kraken by 1 | 25.0% |
| Jets by 1 | 27.5% |
| Jets by 2 | 12.2% |
| Jets by 3+ | 16.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraken | 37 | 1 | 1.50 | −0.50 |
 Jets | 47 | 0 | 1.81 | −1.81 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 8:01 | Tripping on the Kraken (Jaden Schwartz): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 15:41 | Slashing on the Kraken (Jordan Eberle): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 6:36 | Slashing on the Jets (Kyle Connor): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% SEA |
| P2 6:12 | Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 8:01 | Tripping on the Kraken (Jaden Schwartz): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% WPG | – |
| 2 | P2 17:32 | Jaden Schwartz scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 20% chance | +16% SEA | – |
| 3 | P2 15:42 | Gabriel Vilardi’s wrist shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +3% SEA | – |
| 4 | P2 15:41 | Slashing on the Kraken (Jordan Eberle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% WPG | – |
| 5 | P2 6:36 | Slashing on the Jets (Kyle Connor): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% SEA | – |
| 6 | P2 6:12 | Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% WPG | – |
| 7 | P3 13:11 | Logan Stanley’s wrist shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 9% chance | +3% SEA | – |
| 8 | P3 3:33 | Morgan Barron missed the net with a tip from 11 feetShooting · 6% chance | +2% SEA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kraken 85% · Jets 15%
- Final margin
- Kraken by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for the Kraken
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kraken by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Kraken 44% · Jets 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 3, 2025-26
- Blues at Red Wings Oct 25, 2025 · DET 6–4 · replay 26% for the winner
- Kings at Predators Oct 25, 2025 · NSH 5–4 SO · replay 27% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Avalanche Oct 23, 2025 · CAR 5–4 SO · replay 28% for the winner
- Avalanche at Bruins Oct 25, 2025 · BOS 3–2 · replay 31% for the winner
- Kings at Stars Oct 23, 2025 · LAK 3–2 OT · replay 38% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Stars Oct 21, 2025 · CBJ 5–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Avalanche at Devils Oct 26, 2025 · NJD 4–3 OT · replay 40% for the winner
- Kings at Blues Oct 21, 2025 · LAK 2–1 OT · replay 41% for the winner
- Mammoth at Jets Oct 26, 2025 · UTA 3–2 · replay 43% for the winner
- Canadiens at Oilers Oct 23, 2025 · EDM 6–5 · replay 43% for the winner
- Ducks at Bruins Oct 23, 2025 · ANA 7–5 · replay 44% for the winner
- Mammoth at Blues Oct 23, 2025 · UTA 7–4 · replay 45% for the winner