2025-26 regular season · October 20, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Jets at Flames, Oct 20, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Flames 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Flames had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 10 points of win probability to the Flames.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 17:19 left): Jonathan Toews scored on a tip from 5 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Jets. The biggest single swing (P3, 4:54 left): Mark Scheifele scored on a wrist shot from 9 feet.
Final
 Winnipeg Jets | 2 |
|---|---|
 Calgary Flames | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Jets lucky · −36 Flames
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 6, Flames win 4.
- 1 WPG 6 CGY 1
- 2 WPG 7 CGY 3
- 3 WPG 4 CGY 1
- 4 WPG 3 CGY 1
- 5 WPG 2 CGY 1
- 6 WPG 3 CGY 2
- 7 WPG 3 CGY 4
- 8 WPG 3 CGY 4
- 9 WPG 2 CGY 4
- 10 WPG 3 CGY 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 64% of them, Flames 36%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 3+ | 35.7% |
| Jets by 2 | 9.9% |
| Jets by 1 | 18.2% |
| Flames by 1 | 17.6% |
| Flames by 2 | 7.2% |
| Flames by 3+ | 11.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jets | 34 | 2 | 3.49 | −1.49 |
 Flames | 48 | 1 | 2.61 | −1.61 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:37 | High sticking on the Jets (Gabriel Vilardi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 15:54 | Holding the stick on the Flames (Connor Zary): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P1 6:36 | Holding on the Jets (Tanner Pearson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 1:10 | Interference on the Jets (Logan Stanley): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P2 17:09 | Interference on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CGY |
| P2 14:03 | Slashing on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
| P2 11:01 | Too many men on the ice on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
| P2 4:58 | Too many men on the ice on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P3 18:53 | High sticking on the Flames (Nazem Kadri): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
| P3 0:26 | Slashing on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CGY |
When it happened
Flames’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 11:01 | Too many men on the ice on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% WPG | – |
| 2 | P2 10:30 | Alex Iafallo’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance | +6% CGY | – |
| 3 | P2 10:28 | Alex Iafallo’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +5% CGY | – |
| 4 | P2 6:38 | Rasmus Andersson scored on a slap shot from 70 feetShooting · 1% chance | +22% CGY | – |
| 5 | P3 17:45 | Alex Iafallo’s backhand shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +6% CGY | – |
| 6 | P3 17:19 | The game turned hereJonathan Toews scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 20% chance | +21% WPG | – |
| 7 | P3 4:54 | Mark Scheifele scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 18% chance | +32% WPG | – |
| 8 | P3 0:26 | Slashing on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% CGY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 64% · Flames 36%
- Final margin
- Jets by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 64% · Flames 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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