luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 26, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Golden Knights at Lightning, Oct 26, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Golden Knights 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Golden Knights had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.

The biggest swing (OT): the Lightning won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final (OT)

Vegas Golden Knights 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 2

October 26, 2025 · Benchmark International Arena

Luck index +36 Lightning lucky · −36 Golden Knights

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Golden Knights win 4, Lightning win 6.

  1. 1 VGK 5 TBL 2
  2. 2 VGK 5 TBL 4
  3. 3 VGK 7 TBL 6
  4. 4 VGK 4 TBL 3
  5. 5 VGK 1 TBL 2
  6. 6 VGK 2 TBL 3
  7. 7 VGK 4 TBL 6
  8. 8 VGK 0 TBL 3
  9. 9 VGK 0 TBL 3
  10. 10 VGK 1 TBL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Golden Knights win 36% of them, Lightning 64%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Golden Knights by 3+7.7%
Golden Knights by 26.7%
Golden Knights by 121.6%
Lightning by 121.7%
Lightning by 213.2%
Lightning by 3+29.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 1, without the luck Lightning by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Golden Knights2511.71−0.71
Lightning3812.75−1.75

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:09 Delaying game puck over glass on the Golden Knights (Brandon Saad): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P1 12:29 Hooking on the Lightning (Oliver Bjorkstrand): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VGK
P1 8:41 High sticking double minor on the Golden Knights (Alexander Holtz): 4 minutes on the power play +7% TBL
P2 13:40 Tripping on the Golden Knights (Jeremy Lauzon): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P2 9:45 Holding on the Golden Knights (Kaedan Korczak): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P3 9:28 Slashing on the Lightning (Brandon Hagel): 2 minutes on the power play +8% VGK
P3 6:40 A Golden Knights goal came off the board on review (off side) +36% TBL
P3 5:30 Roughing on the Lightning (Zemgus Girgensons): 2 minutes on the power play +9% VGK

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Golden Knights were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:07 Brandon Hagel scored on a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% TBL –
2 P1 1:35 William Karlsson scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 9% chance +16% VGK –
3 P3 9:28 Slashing on the Lightning (Brandon Hagel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% VGK –
4 P3 8:24 Tomas Hertl’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +7% TBL –
5 P3 7:29 Ivan Barbashev’s backhand shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +7% TBL –
6 P3 6:40 A Golden Knights goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +36% TBL –
7 P3 5:30 Roughing on the Lightning (Zemgus Girgensons): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% VGK –
8 OT The Lightning won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Golden Knights 30% · Lightning 70%

Final margin
Lightning by 1
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Golden Knights 36% · Lightning 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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