luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 25, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Islanders at Flyers, Oct 25, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Islanders 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flyers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The game turned on a luck play (P3, 18:06 left): Trevor Zegras scored on a wrist shot from 15 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Flyers. The biggest single swing (SO): the Flyers won the shootout.

Final (SO)

New York Islanders 3
Philadelphia Flyers 4

October 25, 2025 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +46 Flyers lucky · −46 Islanders

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Islanders win 5, Flyers win 5.

  1. 1 NYI 4 PHI 1
  2. 2 NYI 4 PHI 1
  3. 3 NYI 3 PHI 1
  4. 4 NYI 4 PHI 3
  5. 5 NYI 1 PHI 0
  6. 6 NYI 3 PHI 4
  7. 7 NYI 2 PHI 3
  8. 8 NYI 2 PHI 4
  9. 9 NYI 0 PHI 3
  10. 10 NYI 1 PHI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Islanders win 46% of them, Flyers 54%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Islanders by 3+17.0%
Islanders by 210.2%
Islanders by 119.3%
Flyers by 121.7%
Flyers by 210.5%
Flyers by 3+21.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 1, without the luck Flyers by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Islanders4132.57+0.43
Flyers3532.91+0.09

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:08 Holding on the Flyers (Travis Sanheim): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P1 10:48 Interference on the Islanders (Emil Heineman): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 16:34 Cross checking on the Islanders (Tony DeAngelo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 6:30 Slashing on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYI
P3 13:41 High sticking on the Islanders (Scott Mayfield): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Islanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:09 Simon Holmstrom scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% NYI –
2 P2 13:45 Anthony Duclair scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% NYI –
3 P2 9:31 Christian Dvorak scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% PHI –
4 P3 18:06 The game turned hereTrevor Zegras scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 8% chance +25% PHI –
5 P3 15:39 Maxim Tsyplakov scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance +26% NYI –
6 P3 12:28 Trevor Zegras scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 29% chance +22% PHI –
7 P3 11:29 Jonathan Drouin’s snap shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +6% PHI –
8 SO The Flyers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Islanders 44% · Flyers 56%

Final margin
Flyers by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Islanders 46% · Flyers 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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