luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 24, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Sabres, Oct 24, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sabres win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 30 points of win probability to the Sabres.

The biggest swing (P2, 12:40 left): Tage Thompson scored on a wrist shot from 21 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Sabres.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Buffalo Sabres 5

October 24, 2025 · KeyBank Center

Luck index +49 Sabres lucky · −49 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 5, Sabres win 5.

  1. 1 TOR 5 BUF 1
  2. 2 TOR 3 BUF 0
  3. 3 TOR 5 BUF 3
  4. 4 TOR 4 BUF 3
  5. 5 TOR 3 BUF 2
  6. 6 TOR 1 BUF 2
  7. 7 TOR 2 BUF 3
  8. 8 TOR 0 BUF 2
  9. 9 TOR 0 BUF 3
  10. 10 TOR 0 BUF 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 49% of them, Sabres 51%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+17.3%
Maple Leafs by 29.8%
Maple Leafs by 122.1%
Sabres by 123.8%
Sabres by 210.0%
Sabres by 3+17.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Sabres: the final margin was Sabres by 2, without the luck Sabres by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4532.71+0.29
Sabres4552.35+2.65

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:59 Tripping on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P1 8:21 Hooking on the Sabres (Tage Thompson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 6:37 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Max Domi): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P1 6:34 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Calle Jarnkrok): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P3 4:37 Delaying game puck over glass on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TOR
P3 0:12 High sticking double minor on the Sabres (Peyton Krebs): 4 minutes on the power play 0% TOR

When it happened

Sabres’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sabres were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:22 Mattias Samuelsson scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% BUF –
2 P1 14:59 William Nylander scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% TOR –
3 P1 13:48 Jiri Kulich scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 16% chance +13% BUF –
4 P1 7:15 Auston Matthews scored on a slap shot from 28 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% TOR –
5 P2 12:40 Tage Thompson scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 13% chance +18% BUF –
6 P2 6:50 Mattias Samuelsson scored on a slap shot from 29 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% BUF –
7 P3 18:05 Dakota Joshua scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 13% chance +13% TOR –
8 P3 3:14 Matias Maccelli’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +11% BUF –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 38% · Sabres 62%

Final margin
Sabres by 2
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Sabres
Luck-adjusted margin
Sabres by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 49% · Sabres 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 3 2025-26 games · Maple Leafs · Sabres

More from week 3, 2025-26

Every game of week 3, 2025-26