luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 22, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Flames, Oct 22, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Flames 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Canadiens won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

Final (OT)

Montreal Canadiens 2
Calgary Flames 1

October 22, 2025 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +49 Canadiens lucky · −49 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 5, Flames win 5.

  1. 1 MTL 5 CGY 1
  2. 2 MTL 5 CGY 2
  3. 3 MTL 3 CGY 1
  4. 4 MTL 3 CGY 2
  5. 5 MTL 1 CGY 0
  6. 6 MTL 2 CGY 3
  7. 7 MTL 1 CGY 2
  8. 8 MTL 2 CGY 4
  9. 9 MTL 3 CGY 5
  10. 10 MTL 1 CGY 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Canadiens win 51% of them, Flames 49%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+17.5%
Canadiens by 210.7%
Canadiens by 122.7%
Flames by 123.9%
Flames by 29.8%
Flames by 3+15.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3412.29−1.29
Flames4912.31−1.31

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:25 High sticking on the Canadiens (Jakub Dobes): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 9:18 Tripping on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 3:32 Hooking on the Flames (Rasmus Andersson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 15:26 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 8:58 High sticking on the Canadiens (Oliver Kapanen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 5:23 Tripping on the Canadiens (Mike Matheson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 7:42 Tripping on the Canadiens (Noah Dobson): 2 minutes on the power play +8% CGY
P3 7:26 Tripping on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power play +8% MTL

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 2:51 Zachary Bolduc scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 13% chance +16% MTL –
2 P2 15:26 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CGY –
3 P2 8:58 High sticking on the Canadiens (Oliver Kapanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CGY –
4 P2 5:23 Tripping on the Canadiens (Mike Matheson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
5 P3 14:04 Adam Klapka scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 7% chance +27% CGY –
6 P3 7:42 Tripping on the Canadiens (Noah Dobson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% CGY –
7 P3 7:26 Tripping on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% MTL –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Canadiens won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 50% · Flames 50%

Final margin
Canadiens by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 51% · Flames 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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