luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 21, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Senators, Oct 21, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Senators 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Oilers.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Oilers won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final (OT)

Edmonton Oilers 3
Ottawa Senators 2

October 21, 2025 · Canadian Tire Centre

Luck index +50 Oilers lucky · −50 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 5, Senators win 5.

  1. 1 EDM 3 OTT 0
  2. 2 EDM 3 OTT 0
  3. 3 EDM 2 OTT 0
  4. 4 EDM 2 OTT 1
  5. 5 EDM 2 OTT 1
  6. 6 EDM 1 OTT 2
  7. 7 EDM 1 OTT 2
  8. 8 EDM 1 OTT 3
  9. 9 EDM 0 OTT 2
  10. 10 EDM 0 OTT 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Oilers win 50% of them, Senators 50%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+14.3%
Oilers by 210.9%
Oilers by 124.8%
Senators by 126.3%
Senators by 211.4%
Senators by 3+12.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Oilers: the final margin was Oilers by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers3021.70+0.30
Senators3121.62+0.38

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:19 Cross checking on the Oilers (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 4:09 Slashing on the Senators (Tim Stützle): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 1:19 Holding on the Oilers (Isaac Howard): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 3:33 Hooking on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P2 0:20 Tripping on the Oilers (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
OT 4:35 Slashing on the Senators (Tim Stützle): 2 minutes on the power play +12% EDM

When it happened

Senators’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Senators were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 4:09 Slashing on the Senators (Tim Stützle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% EDM –
2 P1 3:29 Connor McDavid scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% EDM –
3 P2 19:11 Isaac Howard scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% EDM –
4 P3 19:47 Dylan Cozens scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% OTT –
5 P3 18:11 Thomas Chabot scored on a slap shot from 60 feetShooting · 2% chance +26% OTT –
6 P3 9:20 Matt Savoie’s wrist shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +4% OTT –
7 OT The game turned hereThe Oilers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% EDM –
8 OT 4:35 Slashing on the Senators (Tim Stützle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 51% · Senators 49%

Final margin
Oilers by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Oilers
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 50% · Senators 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 3 2025-26 games · Oilers · Senators

More from week 3, 2025-26

Every game of week 3, 2025-26