luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 24, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flames at Jets, Oct 24, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Flames 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Jets.

The biggest swing (P2, 13:36 left): Jonathan Toews scored on a tip from 8 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Calgary Flames 3
Winnipeg Jets 5

October 24, 2025 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +51 Jets lucky · −51 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flames win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 CGY 7 WPG 3
  2. 2 CGY 6 WPG 3
  3. 3 CGY 6 WPG 4
  4. 4 CGY 6 WPG 5
  5. 5 CGY 3 WPG 2
  6. 6 CGY 3 WPG 4
  7. 7 CGY 4 WPG 5
  8. 8 CGY 2 WPG 4
  9. 9 CGY 3 WPG 6
  10. 10 CGY 1 WPG 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Flames win 51% of them, Jets 49%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flames by 3+24.7%
Flames by 29.7%
Flames by 116.9%
Jets by 118.6%
Jets by 29.4%
Jets by 3+20.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 2, without the luck Jets by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flames4433.75−0.75
Jets4343.31+0.69

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:41 Holding on the Jets (Nikita Chibrikov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 15:20 Tripping on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 10:27 Interference on the Flames (Matt Coronato): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P1 5:23 Holding on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 13:36 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 11:30 Holding on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 1:59 Holding on the Flames (Rasmus Andersson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG
P2 0:00 Roughing on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CGY
P3 19:05 Tripping on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power play +2% WPG
P3 16:20 Holding on the Jets (Tanner Pearson): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CGY
P3 14:01 High sticking on the Flames (Jonathan Huberdeau): 2 minutes on the power play +2% WPG
P3 8:43 Interference goalkeeper on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 8:30 High sticking on the Flames (Matt Coronato): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG
P3 2:50 Cross checking on the Jets (Haydn Fleury): 2 minutes on the power play +6% CGY

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Flames were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:42 Nazem Kadri scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% CGY –
2 P2 14:41 Kyle Connor scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 14% chance +17% WPG –
3 P2 13:36 Jonathan Toews scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 10% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +22% WPG –
4 P2 10:10 Gabriel Vilardi scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% WPG –
5 P2 6:04 Mikael Backlund scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 14% chance +13% CGY –
6 P2 1:10 Alex Iafallo scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 15% chance +13% WPG –
7 P3 11:33 Blake Coleman scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 13% chance +12% CGY –
8 P3 2:17 Nazem Kadri missed the net with a slap shot from 18 feetShooting · 20% chance +8% WPG –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flames 31% · Jets 69%

Final margin
Jets by 2
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Flames 51% · Jets 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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