luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 24, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Devils, Oct 24, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Devils beat the Sharks 3–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Sharks had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 13 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The biggest swing (P2, 19:20 left): Dougie Hamilton scored on a wrist shot from 21 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Devils.

Final

San Jose Sharks 1
New Jersey Devils 3

October 24, 2025 · Prudential Center

Luck index +35 Devils lucky · −35 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 4, Devils win 6.

  1. 1 SJS 5 NJD 2
  2. 2 SJS 3 NJD 1
  3. 3 SJS 4 NJD 3
  4. 4 SJS 2 NJD 1
  5. 5 SJS 3 NJD 4
  6. 6 SJS 2 NJD 3
  7. 7 SJS 1 NJD 3
  8. 8 SJS 4 NJD 7
  9. 9 SJS 1 NJD 5
  10. 10 SJS 0 NJD 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Sharks win 35% of them, Devils 65%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+9.8%
Sharks by 27.0%
Sharks by 118.6%
Devils by 119.7%
Devils by 211.2%
Devils by 3+33.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Devils: the final margin was Devils by 2, without the luck Devils by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks2612.26−1.26
Devils4523.46−1.46

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:49 Tripping on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P1 11:17 Hooking on the Sharks (Adam Gaudette): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P1 0:54 Tripping on the Sharks (Dmitry Orlov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 18:09 Tripping on the Devils (Simon Nemec): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 12:39 Hooking on the Sharks (Jeff Skinner): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NJD
P2 7:26 Delaying game puck over glass on the Sharks (Vincent Iorio): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 6:30 Cross checking on the Sharks (Vincent Desharnais): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P3 18:25 Hooking on the Devils (Connor Brown): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P3 12:19 Slashing on the Devils (Timo Meier): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:35 William Eklund scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% SJS –
2 P2 19:20 Dougie Hamilton scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 15% chance +16% NJD –
3 P2 12:39 Hooking on the Sharks (Jeff Skinner): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NJD –
4 P2 10:52 Dougie Hamilton scored on a slap shot from 24 feetShooting · 22% chance +16% NJD –
5 P3 12:19 Slashing on the Devils (Timo Meier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SJS –
6 P3 11:44 Adam Gaudette’s snap shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +7% NJD –
7 P3 10:10 Adam Gaudette’s snap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +7% NJD –
8 P3 4:02 Collin Graf’s wrist shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance +5% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 14% · Devils 86%

Final margin
Devils by 2
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Devils
Luck-adjusted margin
Devils by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 35% · Devils 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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