2025-26 regular season · October 23, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canucks at Predators, Oct 23, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Predators beat the Canucks 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Predators.
The biggest swing (P3, 14:51 left): Cole Smith scored on a tip from 10 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Predators.
Final
 Vancouver Canucks | 1 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Predators lucky · −52 Canucks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canucks win 5, Predators win 5.
- 1 VAN 3 NSH 0
- 2 VAN 4 NSH 1
- 3 VAN 3 NSH 1
- 4 VAN 2 NSH 1
- 5 VAN 3 NSH 2
- 6 VAN 1 NSH 2
- 7 VAN 1 NSH 2
- 8 VAN 0 NSH 2
- 9 VAN 3 NSH 6
- 10 VAN 2 NSH 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Canucks win 52% of them, Predators 48%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canucks by 3+ | 16.6% |
| Canucks by 2 | 11.3% |
| Canucks by 1 | 24.1% |
| Predators by 1 | 24.2% |
| Predators by 2 | 9.3% |
| Predators by 3+ | 14.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canucks | 32 | 1 | 2.68 | −1.68 |
 Predators | 38 | 2 | 1.88 | +0.12 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:45 | Interference on the Predators (Nick Perbix): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P1 9:56 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Canucks (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 7:20 | High sticking on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P1 2:12 | High sticking on the Predators (Luke Evangelista): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P1 1:42 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Predators (Brady Skjei): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P2 18:37 | High sticking on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 12:28 | Tripping on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% VAN |
| P3 9:37 | Roughing on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 12:28 | Tripping on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% VAN | – |
| 2 | P2 10:59 | Ryan O'Reilly scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance | +20% NSH | – |
| 3 | P2 8:11 | Max Sasson scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 8% chance | +20% VAN | – |
| 4 | P3 14:51 | Cole Smith scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance | +26% NSH | – |
| 5 | P3 9:37 | Roughing on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% NSH | – |
| 6 | P3 1:41 | Brock Boeser’s tip from 7 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance | +6% NSH | – |
| 7 | P3 1:40 | Brock Boeser’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance | +11% NSH | – |
| 8 | P3 0:05 | Brock Boeser’s wrist shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +8% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canucks 65% · Predators 35%
- Final margin
- Predators by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Canucks by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Canucks 52% · Predators 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 3, 2025-26
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